Should I buy TD Bank stock in 2025?

What is TD Bank?

How much is TD Bank stock?

The price of TD Bank stock is rising this week. As of now, the stock trades at $68.74 (USD) on NYSE, showing a 0.92% gain in the last 24 hours and an impressive 6.11% rise over the past week.

TD Bank features a market capitalization of $119.5 billion, with an average three-month daily trading volume of 2.03 million shares. The P/E ratio stands at 9.85, and the dividend yield is 4.39%, while the stock’s beta is 0.98, indicating relatively modest volatility.

With these fundamentals, TD Bank presents notable stability for investors in South Africa seeking global bank exposure, though short-term fluctuations may occur.

Our full analysis on TD Bank stock

Having conducted a rigorous review of TD Bank’s latest financial statements and analysed the stock’s performance trajectory over the past three years, our team has leveraged a suite of proprietary algorithms to synthesise a diverse set of indicators—fundamental and technical metrics, peer benchmarking, and broad market trends. The resulting picture is both nuanced and encouraging, with multiple signals pointing to TD Bank as particularly well-aligned for strategic positioning within the global financial sector. So, why might TD Bank stock once again become a compelling entry point for investors seeking robust exposure to North American banking in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

TD Bank (NYSE:TD; TSE:TD) has delivered a remarkably strong performance over the past year, decisively outpacing many of its North American peer group. As of 30 May 2025, the stock trades at $68.74 USD on the NYSE—registering a 21.6% gain over six months and an impressive 25.76% growth year-on-year. Intraday sessions remain constructive (+0.92% last session), while weekly performance (+6.11%) underscores a persistent upward momentum. These advances reflect both a recovery from sector lows and renewed investor enthusiasm, particularly in response to TD Bank’s high-profile strategic moves.

The headline event in recent quarters was the successful divestiture of its substantial Charles Schwab stake, which generated a net gain of C$8.6bn and a transformative injection of capital strength (+238bps to the CET1 ratio). This proactive balance sheet reconfiguration not only de-risked the portfolio from non-core equity exposure, but freed resources for targeted reinvestment and expansion.

Despite sector-wide challenges—notably, post-pandemic margin compression and increased regulatory scrutiny—TD Bank has adeptly navigated macro headwinds. The Canadian economic backdrop remains resilient, with steady GDP growth and robust household deposits (+5% YoY for TD). Meanwhile, US market dynamics, though subject to trade-policy and rate-uncertainty risk, have rewarded banks demonstrating scale, cost management, and digital engagement.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, TD Bank’s chart structure suggests a stock entering a bullish maturation phase, albeit with some signals of overbought conditions. At $94.92 CAD on the TSX, TD Bank is trading above all key moving averages—a potent bullish signal in momentum analysis:

• 20-day MA: 89.92 CAD (Strong buy signal)
• 50-day MA: 86.29 CAD (Momentum consolidating above mid-term support)
• 100-day MA: 84.13 CAD
• 200-day MA: 80.76 CAD

These consistently rising averages, coupled with a persistent position above the 200-day MA, reinforce the perception of structural uptrend. The Relative Strength Index, at 77.97 (14-day period), suggests near-term overbought conditions; nonetheless, RSI excesses can persist in trending markets, and may simply reflect aggressive accumulation. The MACD at 2.20 provides a short-term sell alert, but should be read in the context of robust underlying trend signals and a supportive technical backdrop.

• Support Levels: 92.50-93.01 CAD (critical for trend validation)
• Resistance Levels: 94.84-95.35 CAD (breakout likely to be catalyst for further upside)

Recent price action—consistently above these major supports—points to an environment where dips are viewed as opportunities to gain exposure ahead of anticipated catalysts.

Fundamental Analysis

TD Bank’s fundamentals present a compelling narrative of operational strength and forward-looking dynamism. Following the Schwab transaction, Q2 2025 reported revenue soared to C$22.94bn, up from C$13.82bn a year earlier. Net income jumped substantially to C$11.13bn (reported), with adjusted net earnings at C$3.63bn despite one-off normalization. Earnings per share also reflected this outperformance (diluted reported: 6.27 CAD vs 1.35 CAD YOY).

Despite recent regulatory penalties (notably, a $3.1bn AML settlement), the bank’s profitability matrix remains robust, with expected margin improvements of $300–500m in 2025. The CET1 ratio now stands at a resilient 14.9%, underlining ultra-strong capitalisation and offering superior downside protection—an increasingly scarce commodity amid volatile global rates.

Strategically, TD is benefitting from continued Canadian leadership, US market diversification, and ongoing digital innovation (over 18 million active online/mobile customers). Its reputation—“America’s Most Convenient Bank”—supports premium branding and defensible market share.

Volume and Liquidity

Average daily volume registers at 2.03 million shares (NYSE), confirming sustained institutional and retail interest. Such consistent turnover signals strong market confidence and liquidity, essential for investors seeking efficient entry and exit. The stock’s large float and deep market ensures price discovery processes remain dynamic, supporting a valuation framework that is responsive to both micro and macro newsflow.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Several forward-looking catalysts bolster the medium-term case for TD Bank:

• US Business Restructuring: Ongoing allocation of $50bn+ in repositioned investments is set to sharpen earnings focus and risk-adjusted returns.
• Margin Expansion: 2025 is forecast to bring $300–500m in incremental margin benefit, the product of capital redeployment and efficiency initiatives.
• Canadian Deposit Growth: Sustained 5% YoY growth in deposits highlights consumer confidence and TD’s retail strength.
• Leadership in Digital Transformation: Substantial and accelerating investment in technology places TD well ahead of many global peers in digital banking, service delivery, and customer retention.
• Upcoming Strategic Review (H2 2025): Management communication points to further portfolio optimisation and a sharpened growth focus—the kind of narrative likely to capture fresh market attention.
• ESG Commitments and Brand Equity: Ongoing investments in sustainability and compliance deliver reputational differentiation in North American banking, increasingly valued by large institutional holders.

Collectively, these drivers are poised to generate new cycles of earnings accretion, underpinning an optimistic market consensus (median analyst target: $70.15 USD, or ~30% above current levels).

Investment Strategies

TD Bank now presents a fertile ground for a range of investment tacticalities:

• Short Term: Technical overextension (RSI > 77) could result in tactical profit-taking, but the strong uptrend and persistent support suggest any short-term pullback would find eager buyers, especially near major MA or support zones (92.50–93.01 CAD).
• Medium Term: The upcoming strategic review and continued US portfolio refinement are expected to act as catalysts for further re-rating.
• Long Term: For patient investors, the combination of a discounted P/E, high dividend yield, capital strength, international diversification, and digital leadership creates a platform for sustained value creation and compounding returns, especially as North American rates stabilise and digital transformation deepens.

Ideal positioning appears to be on technical retracements towards established support (early- to mid-90s CAD range), or on confirmation of fresh breakouts above key resistance. Investors looking to build a “core holding” in the global bank space may find TD an ideal candidate.

Is it the Right Time to Buy TD Bank?

Synthesising fundamentals, technicals, and broader sector context, TD Bank’s investment case appears especially persuasive as we enter the second half of 2025:

• The balance sheet is fortified;
• Operational performance is robust and diversified;
• Capital allocation remains judicious and growth-oriented;
• Valuations remain attractive relative to both historical benchmarks and peers;
• The technical structure signals sustained upward momentum, with sizeable upside to consensus targets;
• Substantial and credible catalysts are in play—including strategic reviews, margin expansion, and digital transformation.

All signals considered, TD Bank seems to represent an excellent opportunity for investors aiming to achieve growth and resilience in their financial sector exposure. The stock may be entering a new bullish phase, supported by strong technical and fundamental underpinnings as well as an appealing yield. For South African investors seeking diversified international exposure with a combination of growth, stability, and income, TD Bank increasingly commands serious attention.

In conclusion, TD Bank’s transformative strategic initiatives, robust operating profile, and reinvigorated capital strength appear to justify renewed interest at current levels. The convergence of favourable fundamentals, technical momentum, and an optimistic forward-looking context positions TD Bank as a prime candidate for portfolio inclusion as the North American banking landscape evolves through 2025 and beyond. This moment in TD Bank’s journey could well mark a pivotal entry point for discerning investors seeking both stability and upside potential in one of the world’s most respected banking franchises.

How to buy TD Bank stock in South Africa?

Buying TD Bank shares online is straightforward and highly secure when you use a regulated broker in South Africa. Investors have two primary options: purchasing the shares outright (spot buying), or trading via Contracts for Difference (CFDs), which allow you to speculate on price movements with the possibility of leverage. Each method suits different investment goals and risk levels. Below, we explain both approaches in detail and highlight key differences. For help in selecting the best broker for your needs, see our comparison further down the page.

Spot Buying

Spot buying, or cash purchase, means you acquire actual TD Bank shares in your name through your brokerage account. You become a direct shareholder and may benefit from dividends and voting rights. Most brokers in South Africa charge a fixed commission per trade—typically around R100 to R250—plus currency conversion fees for international transactions.

Important Example

For example, with a stake of $1,000 (about R18,300), and assuming the TD Bank share price is $68.74 (NYSE quote), you can buy approximately 14 shares ($1,000 ÷ $68.74 = 14.54, rounded down). After accounting for a brokerage fee of about $5 (R90), you'll hold 14 TD Bank shares.
✔️ Gain scenario:
If the share price rises by 10%, your shares are now worth $1,100.
Result: That's a gross gain of $100, or +10% on your investment (excluding any taxes or currency exchange impact).

Trading via CFD

CFD trading lets you speculate on TD Bank’s share price movements without actually owning the shares. You can go long or short, and use leverage to enhance potential returns. Instead of a fixed commission, CFD brokers typically charge via the spread (the difference between buy and sell price) and daily overnight financing fees if you hold positions open for more than one day.

Important Example

Let's take a $1,000 (≈ R18,300) stake with 5x leverage. This means you control a position size of $5,000.
✔️ Gain scenario:
If TD Bank shares rise 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%.
Result: That’s a gain of $400 on a $1,000 margin (excluding spreads and overnight fees).

Final Advice

Before investing in TD Bank shares, it is crucial to compare brokers’ fees, account types, and trading conditions. Both spot buying and CFD trading offer advantages, but the right choice depends on your objectives: investors seeking long-term ownership may prefer cash purchases, while active traders interested in short-term opportunities might benefit from CFDs. You can explore our comprehensive broker comparison further down this page to find the platform that best matches your strategy and budget.

Our 7 tips for buying TD Bank stock

The latest news about TD Bank

TD Bank stock has surged over 6% this week, underlining strong market confidence and sustained buying momentum. The share price closed at $68.74 USD (+0.92% on the day) and jumped by 6.11% over the last week, marking its highest point in the past 52 weeks and extending a 25.76% annual gain. This performance reflects multiple analyst upgrades and a positive market sentiment, partly driven by robust Q2 earnings and recent balance sheet improvements. For South African investors seeking international banking exposure with consistent upward trends and substantial liquidity (2.03 million shares traded daily), this performance increases TD Bank’s appeal as a stable offshore allocation.

TD Bank's Q2 2025 results exceeded expectations thanks to the lucrative sale of its Charles Schwab stake. Reported net income soared to 11.1 billion CAD (from 2.6 billion last year), revenue nearly doubled to 22.9 billion CAD, and diluted EPS reached 6.27 CAD, mostly reflecting an exceptional gain of 8.97 billion CAD from the Schwab transaction. Even the adjusted profit, though slightly lower than last year, remained solid at 3.63 billion CAD. The windfall considerably strengthened TD’s capital buffer—CET1 ratio increased by 238 basis points—enhancing the group’s resilience and growth capacity, a key consideration for South African investors evaluating global banks’ risk profiles.

The technical backdrop for TD Bank remains bullish, signaling further positive momentum despite short-term overbought conditions. TD Bank trades above all major moving averages, with its 20, 50, 100, and 200-day averages all providing "buy" signals, underscoring the uptrend’s strength. However, a 14-day RSI of 77.97 indicates a technically overbought zone, which could mean potential volatility or short-term consolidation. Medium-term, the moving average pattern and consensus target of $70.15 USD (upside potential of +30% from current) reflect analyst confidence in sustained growth. ZA investors can view this as a constructive technical setup, though prudent entry points may be favored given recent momentum.

TD continues its strategic repositioning by reallocating US assets, boosting profitability and digital leadership, which is relevant for future Africa-facing partnerships. Management has embarked on a $50 billion US investment repositioning, which is expected to drive $300–500 million in incremental annual profit. Additionally, TD’s ongoing digital transformation—serving over 18 million online and mobile clients—reinforces its reputation for technology-driven banking. Such moves are noteworthy for South African financial professionals analyzing global trends in digital banking and cross-border alliances, especially as South African banks and fintechs increasingly explore North American collaboration and benchmarking.

TD Bank’s international stature and strong capital position enable continued dividend stability, making it an attractive pick for ZA investors seeking reliable USD income streams. With a current 4.39% dividend yield and robust capital adequacy (CET1 ratio at 14.9%), TD upholds its tradition of shareholder returns, even after absorbing major compliance remediation costs in 2024. Its well-established brand and prudent post-AML restructuring support future dividend sustainability and strengthen its status among global banking peers. For South Africans utilizing global asset managers or seeking diversified, income-producing offshore equities, TD’s profile aligns closely with the requirements of risk-averse and income-oriented portfolios.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.