Should I buy Harmony Gold Mining stock in 2025? Expert ZA Analysis

What is Harmony Gold Mining?

How much is the Harmony Gold Mining stock?

The price of Harmony Gold Mining stock is down this week. As of now, the stock trades at $14.57, with a 24-hour decrease of $0.08 (-0.55%) and a negative trend for the week.

Harmony Gold Mining holds a market capitalisation of $9.09 billion, with an average 3-month volume of 5.50 million shares. The P/E ratio stands at 16.31, supported by a dividend yield of 1.18%, and the stock’s beta is 0.82.

While generally less volatile than the market overall, Harmony Gold is still influenced by fluctuations in global gold prices, so investors should consider both opportunity and risk.

Our complete analysis of the Harmony Gold Mining stock

After thoroughly reviewing Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited's latest financial statements and analyzing its stock performance over the last three years, we have synthesized an actionable perspective by integrating financial indicators, technical patterns, sectoral trends, and competitor benchmarks using our proprietary analytics. The result is a holistic overview tailored to both discerning investors and those newly considering the mining sector. So, why might Harmony Gold Mining serve once again as a strategic entry point into the precious metals sector for 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Harmony Gold Mining (JSE: HAR, NYSE: HMY) has delivered an impressive turnaround story, compounded by record financial achievements and dynamic sector positioning. At a current price of $14.57 (as of 30 May 2025), the share is consolidating after a strong rally that saw it rise from the lows of $7.97 to highs of $18.77 in the past 52 weeks—a gain of nearly 135% at the peak.

Recent months have seen the company announce exceptional interim results, with earnings per share (EPS) up 33% year-on-year and revenue jumping by 24.56% to ZAR 61.38 billion for FY2024. The declaration of a record R1.44 billion interim dividend and robust operational cash flow underpins an attractive yield profile, especially in a sector often prized for cash flow resilience during commodities’ up-cycles.

From a broader perspective, the prevailing macro-environment remains supportive: gold prices have sustained multi-year highs amidst global inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainty, while South African mining equities are increasingly favoured by global investors seeking both yield and hedging qualities. The recent shift in leadership—with Beyers Nel bringing fresh strategic impetus as CEO—combined with a sector rotation into materials and metals, has further fuelled positive sentiment.

Technical Analysis

The technical framework surrounding Harmony’s stock currently presents a compelling setup for accumulation, particularly for investors attuned to cyclical entry points:

• Relative Strength Index (RSI, 14 days): At 46.96, the RSI indicates a neutral stance, neither overbought nor oversold. This neutrality often precedes upside momentum when aligned with broader bullish signals.
• MACD (12,26,9): With a recent cross at -0.05, the MACD has shifted into a buy signal territory, suggesting potential reversal from the latest consolidation phase.
• Moving Averages: Despite all monitored moving averages (20/50/100/200 days) presently acting as overhead resistance (with the stock trading slightly below each average), historical precedence often shows that accumulation near key supports while MAs converge can attract swift buying when momentum turns.
• Key Support at $14.00: This level has repeatedly attracted buyers over the last quarter. A sustained hold above this zone may provide the foundation for a new leg up, especially in light of the macro and fundamental catalysts.
• Key Resistance at $14.80: Surpassing this level can unleash further upside, with the next medium-term target in the $17–$19 range, aligning with consensus analyst targets.

While technical consensus from moving averages still reads “Strong Sell” (reflecting recent minor pullbacks), the interplay of consolidating momentum and bullish MACD divergence offers the prospect of early-stage trend reversal—potentially rewarding those entering at cyclical troughs.

Fundamental Analysis

Harmony’s fundamentals have rarely looked more robust:

• Revenue and Profit Growth: FY2024 revenue soared 24.56%, while EPS jumped 33%, driven by operational outperformance and favourable gold price tailwinds.
• Exceptional Cash Flows: Free cash flow has strengthened to record levels, enabling the company to declare its highest-ever interim dividend.
• Attractive Valuation: With a P/E ratio of 16.31, Harmony trades at a discount to global majors and in line with local peers, yet offers sector-leading growth. The PEG ratio (implied by EPS growth) points to underappreciated earnings momentum, especially relative to forward estimates.
• Strategic Expansion: The company’s $1.03 billion acquisition of MAC Copper Limited marks a transformational step, providing a stake in copper—one of the most coveted green-transition metals globally. This not only diversifies revenue streams but strategically positions Harmony to benefit from both gold’s safe-haven allure and copper’s surging demand in electrification and renewables.
• Sector Leadership and Market Share: As South Africa’s largest gold producer, Harmony’s deep operational expertise, broad asset base (SA and Papua New Guinea), and ability to extract value from deep resource bodies give it a durable structural edge.

Volume and Liquidity

Harmony’s average daily volume of 5.5 million shares signifies a highly liquid stock that consistently attracts both local and offshore institutional investors. Liquidity at this scale not only reduces bid-ask spreads but reflects a high degree of market confidence, supporting dynamic valuation and rapid price discovery. The substantial float (622.18 million shares outstanding) ensures sufficient depth for substantial portfolio positions without influencing market price, an attractive feature for both medium and large-cap allocators.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Looking ahead, several clear catalysts justify sustained optimism:

• Diversification via MAC Copper: The completion and integration of this acquisition will propel Harmony into the copper space, augmenting its traditional gold focus with exposure to red-hot green metals markets.
• Favourable Gold Price Regime: With gold prices at or near record levels, financial leverage to the commodity price is maximised, given Harmony’s operational breadth and high grades.
• Operational Excellence: Recent reports confirm consistent grade improvements and cost discipline, underpinning margin expansion.
• ESG Initiatives: Harmony has intensified investment in safety, environmental stewardship, and community programmes—strengthening its long-term licence to operate and appeal to global ESG-oriented funds.
• Strong Balance Sheet: A record net cash position (R10.8 billion) combined with access to capital markets provide ample flexibility to pursue strategic opportunities and sustain attractive dividend payouts.

Sector-wise, ongoing legislative clarity and renewed focus on South African mining productivity bode well for the company’s risk profile and future output.

Investment Strategies

Harmony’s current technical and fundamental convergence offers attractive profiles for three primary timeframes:

• Short-term (1–3 months):
• Opportunity for tactical entries near support at $14.00, targeting a breakout above $14.80 as short-term momentum recovers.
• Recent MACD reversal may herald a swift technical rebound, capitalising on oversold sentiment and positive news flow.
• Medium-term (3–12 months):
• Anticipation of successful MAC Copper integration, together with ongoing gold price strength, make for a compelling case for outperformance. Dividend yields continue to sweeten the risk-reward equation.
• Alignment with sector trends (commodities, resource stocks) strengthens the argument for exposure.
• Long-term (1–3 years):
• Harmony’s dual exposure to gold (a classic hedge in times of uncertainty) and copper (a structural growth story for the green energy transition) supports a robust investment thesis into 2027 and beyond.
• Proven operational execution under new CEO stewardship sets the stage for compounded value creation and expanded global relevance.

Investors positioning at these levels—including those entering ahead of MAC Copper operational synergies—are arguably aligning with the stock at a structural inflection point, poised to benefit from both cyclical recovery and secular growth.

Is It the Right Time to Buy Harmony Gold Mining?

Harmony Gold Mining stands at the nexus of value, growth, and sector transformation. Key strengths—stellar earnings momentum, industry-leading cash flow, new strategic direction, and a major move into copper—combine with supportive technical signals to build a persuasive case for renewed investor interest. High liquidity, dividend resilience, and diversified growth streams underscore the quality of the business and its risk-adjusted opportunity.

Taken together, these factors suggest that Harmony Gold Mining seems to represent an excellent opportunity for those seeking dynamic exposure to both gold and the energy transition metals narrative. With catalysts stacked in its favour and the macro environment likely to remain gold-positive well into 2026, the stock may be entering a new bullish phase. Investors willing to look beyond short-term volatility could find Harmony's current levels an attractive inflection point for a well-structured portfolio allocation.

Harmony Gold Mining’s combination of strong fundamentals, renewed strategic focus, and leading sector positioning may well make it one of the most compelling stories on the JSE and NYSE in 2025. For investors seeking growth, income, and resilience in uncertain times, Harmony’s blend of opportunity, liquidity, and expansion potential justifies careful consideration in any well-diversified portfolio.

How to buy Harmony Gold Mining stock in South Africa?

Buying Harmony Gold Mining shares online is both simple and secure for South African investors, thanks to the leading, regulated brokers available today. You can invest using two main methods: by purchasing shares directly (spot buying), or by trading Contracts for Difference (CFDs), which allow you to speculate on the share's price movements without owning the underlying stock. Both approaches are accessible online, with each offering different advantages. To help you get started, you'll find a detailed broker comparison further down the page.

Cash buying

A cash purchase means you buy Harmony Gold Mining shares outright through your brokerage account, becoming a direct shareholder. This method is straightforward and suitable for long-term investors seeking actual ownership and potential dividends. Most JSE-regulated brokers in South Africa charge a fixed commission per order, typically ranging from R60 to R200, along with a possible small platform or settlement fee.

Example

Suppose the Harmony Gold Mining share price is $14.57 USD (currently around R267 using an exchange rate of $1 = R18.30). With $1,000 USD (about R18,300), you can buy approximately 68 shares, accounting for a typical brokerage fee of $5 (±R90).

Gain scenario

If the share price rises by 10%, your 68 shares would now be worth around $1,100.
Result: A $100 gross gain, or +10% on your initial investment.

Trading via CFD

CFD trading enables you to speculate on the price movement of Harmony Gold Mining shares without owning them. CFDs can be traded with leverage, meaning you only need a fraction of the total exposure as margin. Fees typically include a spread (the difference between buy and sell price) and overnight financing if you hold the position more than a day.

Example

With a $1,000 stake and 5x leverage, you control a position size of $5,000 on Harmony Gold Mining shares. If the price rises by 8%, your gain would be 8% × 5 = 40%.

Result

$400 profit, on your initial $1,000 deposit (excluding spread and possible overnight fees).

Final advice

Before investing, it's essential to compare brokers’ fees, platforms, and conditions, as costs and available features can vary significantly across South African providers. Choose the method—direct purchase or CFD trading—that best matches your investment goals, time horizon, and risk appetite. For an up-to-date overview of top-rated brokers for Harmony Gold Mining shares, see the comparator further down the page.

Our 7 tips for buying Harmony Gold Mining stock

The latest news about Harmony Gold Mining

Harmony Gold Mining posts record interim dividend and 33% rise in earnings, beating market expectations. On 30 May 2025, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited reported its results for the first half of FY2025, highlighting a 33% year-over-year increase in earnings per share (ZAR 12.70, US$0.71) and the declaration of a record interim dividend of 227 South African cents (12.30 US cents) per share. The performance was characterized by robust cash flow and exceptional operational outcomes, surpassing analyst forecasts and reinforcing the company’s commitment to shareholder returns, especially for investors on the JSE in South Africa.

Beyers Nel, newly appointed as CEO in January 2025, is driving operational excellence and strategic focus. The recent leadership transition with Beyers Nel taking the helm as CEO is already yielding positive sentiment in the market. Mr. Nel has emphasized operational discipline and the pursuit of strategic priorities, including efficiency improvements and production stability at South African sites. Early feedback from stakeholders and market analysts has been constructive, highlighting his prior industry experience and the stability this brings to Harmony’s local and international operations.

Harmony advances copper diversification by securing binding agreement to acquire MAC Copper Limited for $1.03 billion. The company announced a binding agreement within the past week to acquire MAC Copper Limited for US$1.03 billion. This expansion positions Harmony as a diversified precious and base metals player, reducing exclusive reliance on gold and enhancing long-term value creation, particularly against the backdrop of ongoing global demand for copper. This move is especially significant for South Africa, as it further anchors Harmony’s status as a locally headquartered multinational with growing strategic prospects.

Harmony’s net cash position reaches record R10.8 billion, reinforcing financial strength and investment capacity. As of the latest financial update, Harmony reported a record net cash position of R10.8 billion, underlining its strong balance sheet and ability to weather market volatility. This capital strength comes on top of growing revenues (up 24.56% year-on-year to ZAR 61.38 billion in 2024) and supports both enhanced shareholder distributions and the financing of key projects such as the MAC Copper acquisition, reassuring South African stakeholders of Harmony’s financial resilience and growth ambitions.

Market sentiment remains optimistic amid sector leadership and continued positive outlook for precious metal prices. Despite a neutral technical signal from the 14-day RSI and "strong sell" bias from moving averages, other technicals such as the MACD suggest emerging buying opportunities. The consensus among local institutional investors and sector analysts is positive, buoyed by Harmony’s leadership as South Africa’s largest gold producer, its proven adaptability to commodities cycles, and favorable macro trends supporting precious and base metals prices, all of which bode well for prospective stock appreciation on the JSE.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.