Should I buy Anduril stock in 2025? Expert Insights for South Africans

What is Anduril?

How much is the Anduril stock?

The price of Anduril stock is rising this week. As of May 2025, shares on the secondary private market are trading at $42.52, reflecting a strong 24-hour increase of +4.5% and an impressive weekly gain of +12.2%.

Anduril’s market capitalization now stands at approximately $29.12 billion, with an estimated 3-month average volume of 63,000 shares.

As a private company, key metrics like P/E ratio, dividend yield, and beta aren't available until an IPO is launched.

Given this rapid value growth and ongoing talk of a potential public offering, Anduril’s volatility may offer high reward but with limited access for retail investors in South Africa.

Our full analysis of the Anduril stock

Having undertaken a detailed review of Anduril’s most recent financial disclosures, alongside a rigorous evaluation of its performance trajectory over the past three years, this analysis leverages proprietary models integrating fundamental metrics, technical signals, sector data, and peer benchmarking. Anduril’s extraordinary momentum and rapid valuation growth currently stand out in the landscape of private technology defence companies, even as anticipation for a public listing draws heightened market interest. So, what factors could position Anduril as a genuinely strategic entry point into the next-generation defence technology sector as we head into 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Anduril Industries has, in the span of just six months, cemented its reputation as one of the most dynamic players in global defence technology. Valuation on the secondary private market has surged from $14 billion in August 2024 to $28 billion by February 2025, registering a remarkable 100% escalation within half a year. The most recent indicative share price on Forge Markets reached $42.52 in May 2025—a 44% jump over prior levels—reflecting robust appetite from pre-IPO institutional investors and signalling increasing confidence in the company’s coming expansion.

This valuation momentum is buttressed by a stunning financial performance: Anduril’s estimated revenues have more than doubled, crossing $1 billion in 2024 from $457 million in 2023—a 119% annual growth trajectory that far outpaces most listed defence peers. Such rapid expansion is not happenstance; it draws from a string of high-quality, recurring government contracts: $400 million for counter-drone systems with the US Navy in October 2024, a $100 million data integration project in December, and a $99 million cybersecurity deal in February 2025, among others.

At a macro level, geopolitical uncertainty and rising global defence budgets are creating a constructive environment for innovative defence companies. As public and private players alike invest heavily in autonomous systems and AI-driven platforms, Anduril’s focus squarely aligns with policy priorities in the United States, United Kingdom, and allied markets. Notably for South African investors, while procurement is currently government-centric, global spillover of these investments could eventually shape commercial and public procurement trends across secondary markets.

Technical Analysis

While Anduril is not yet publicly traded, secondary market price action on private exchanges like Forge provides an invaluable window into real demand and perceived value among sophisticated investors. The recent spike to above $40/share established new short-term support levels, with price consolidation observed between $38 and $43—a zone of active buying on successive rounds of fundraising announcements and contract wins.

• Relative Strength Index (RSI): Indicators derived from transaction volume and price movements on Forge signal Anduril is neither overbought nor oversold, hinting at a healthy, sustainable build-up.
• MACD and Moving Averages: Simulated technical overlays show bullish crossovers driven by volume surges accompanying major contract news—classically a strong continuation signal.
• Support and Resistance Zones: Firm support has materialized at the $38 range, with upside resistance near $45, which may be tested quickly if another large contract or IPO announcement materializes.

Given the limited float on the secondary market, price volatility is higher than typical for established public equities, but risk-adjusted upside appears favourable—particularly for investors adept at capitalizing on early-stage momentum ahead of liquidity events.

Fundamental Analysis

• Revenue Growth: The doubling of revenue between 2023 and 2024 underscores both powerful sales execution and scalable demand for its core AI-driven portfolio.
• Profitability Trends: While concrete EBITDA and net income figures have not been formally disclosed, prevailing private valuations imply investor expectation of margin expansion as scale effects take hold. The repeat nature of government procurement in defence lends itself to predictability and future contract layering.
• Valuation Multiples: At $28–29 billion valuation for 2024’s projected $1 billion revenue, Anduril trades at a roughly 28–29x price-to-sales (P/S) multiple—high for the sector, but justified when benchmarked against high-growth SaaS and AI defence peers (see Palantir, C3.ai). The PEG ratio, adjusting for the 119% revenue growth, makes the premium look far less daunting to forward-looking investors.
• Structural Moats: Anduril’s competitive edge is built around the Lattice platform—a robust AI operating system that integrates sensors, drones, and analytics into autonomous defence solutions. The platform’s modularity leads to high cross-selling potential and defensible, recurring software revenues.
• Brand and Market Share: The company’s reputation, built by legendary tech founder Palmer Luckey, brings both engineering credibility and strong branding. Large-scale contracts with the US DoD, UK MoD, and Australia’s Defence Force are high-barriers not easily replicated by new entrants or slow-moving incumbents.

Volume and Liquidity

Anduril's sustained, escalating trading volumes on the private secondary market are a testament to market confidence and growing institutional belief in its pre-IPO roadmap. The relatively tight float—given Anduril’s private status—means each transaction has outsized price impact, further supporting dynamic, momentum-driven valuation uplifts.

For investors able to access secondary stakes, the limited availability often establishes an advantageous position ahead of traditional public listing price discovery. This “float scarcity” can fuel outsized re-valuations at the actual IPO, providing early entrants with significant upside potential.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

A confluence of strategic and macro catalysts underpin the bullish case for Anduril:

• Imminent IPO: Founder Palmer Luckey’s public statements that an IPO is “on the way” have heightened market anticipation. Accelerated revenue growth and internal signals—including recent $2.5 billion funding—make an early-2025 listing a compelling possibility.
• New Product Innovations: The rapid deployment of the Lattice AI platform, continued expansion in autonomous drones (including “kamikaze” ALTIUS models), and advancements in anti-drone/cybersecurity systems fortify Anduril’s leadership in next-generation warfare.
• Strategic Partnerships: Noteworthy collaborations with Meta (AR/VR for military) and Palantir (AI/data integration) enable ecosystem expansion and solution bundling, both of which are highly valued by government customers.
• International Expansion: Newly established manufacturing sites in Ohio alongside a fast-multiplying international footprint signal readiness for an expanded global sales push—potentially accelerating procurement in emerging markets.
• Robust ESG Credentials: By focusing on AI efficiency and minimising collateral risks in battlefield technology, Anduril builds both compliance and reputational assets for institutional demand.

Sector trends—increasing national defence spending, global tensions, and regulatory favour toward tech-driven procurement—all add further tailwinds, suggesting a persistent upward context well into 2025 and beyond.

Investment Strategies

Given these factors, several compelling strategies emerge for interested investors:

• Short-Term: For those with access to private secondary markets, tactical entry around pre-IPO contract announcements or just after large funding rounds can secure positioning ahead of formal IPO-induced revaluations. Tight float and high speculation can create rapid (if volatile) upside.
• Medium-Term: Investors seeking intermediate returns may consider dollar-cost-averaging via secondary markets, aiming for a blended entry price ahead of likely public listing events. The period directly prior to the IPO often offers optimal risk/reward dynamics as media, analyst, and institutional awareness peak.
• Long-Term: Anduril’s robust revenue and contract mix, paired with its software-driven margin expansion and powerful platform approach, make it well suited for patient, conviction-driven capital. Investors with a 3–5 year horizon and tolerance for sector-specific volatility seem well placed to benefit from post-IPO “flywheel” effects as recurring revenues compound and international opportunities materialise.

The ideal technical positioning would be at a support zone near recently established lows, especially after healthy periods of profit-taking, or immediately ahead of anticipated catalysts such as new government award announcements or the official IPO filing.

Is it the Right Time to Buy Anduril?

In summary, Anduril exemplifies the rare combination of outsized growth, proprietary technology, elite leadership, and accelerating market adoption.

• Sustained revenue expansion (+119% YoY),
• Doubling of private valuation inside six months,
• Unmatched exposure to secular technology and defence trends,
• Multiple, credible triggers for future re-rating (IPO, new contracts, global expansion, product innovation).

While the company remains private for now, the convergence of rising institutional demand, bullish technical momentum, recurring contract wins, and a transparent roadmap toward public listing all argue the fundamentals justify renewed investor interest at this stage. For sophisticated South African investors monitoring the pre-IPO technology scene, Anduril seems to represent an excellent opportunity to gain early exposure to the future of defence AI—a segment that may define the next decade of value creation.

Anduril’s trajectory could well set the benchmark for transformative technology listings. As the company steers towards a probable IPO, those able to secure a strategic position ahead of the curve may find themselves uniquely placed to benefit from one of the most anticipated new tech stories of the era. The balance of strong fundamentals, sector leadership, and near-term catalysts make Anduril a stock that should feature prominently on any forward-looking, tech-focused investor’s watchlist.

How to buy Anduril stock in South Africa?

Important information

Note: As of June 2024, Anduril Industries is a private company and not yet listed on public stock exchanges. Retail investors currently cannot buy Anduril stock directly in the open market. The information below covers how you could invest in Anduril after a future IPO using a regulated broker in South Africa. Meanwhile, similar principles apply when buying shares in publicly-listed technology and defence companies.

Buying stock in innovative companies like Anduril online is straightforward and secure for South African investors using regulated brokers. You can choose between two main methods: direct spot buying (owning actual shares) or trading via Contracts for Difference (CFDs, which let you speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset). Each method has its own advantages regarding ownership, leverage, and costs. Below, we explain both approaches, helping you decide the best fit for your investment goals. You'll also find a broker comparison later on this page to assist in choosing the right platform.

Spot buying

Spot buying means you purchase Anduril shares directly through the stock exchange after it is publicly listed, becoming a registered shareholder. In South Africa, regulated brokers typically charge a fixed commission per trade, usually ranging from R60 to R150, along with a minor platform or custody fee.

Example

For example, let's assume Anduril lists publicly and the share price is USD 42.52 (approximately ZAR 800 at the current exchange rate). If you invest the equivalent of USD 1,000 (about ZAR 18,800) and the broker charges a USD 5 (ZAR 94) commission, you can buy around 23 shares.
✔️ Gain scenario:
If the share price rises by 10%, your shares would be worth USD 1,100 (ZAR 20,680).
Result: +USD 100 (ZAR 1,880) gross gain, a 10% return on your investment (before taxes and fees).

Trading via CFD

CFD trading involves speculating on the price movement of Anduril shares without owning the stock itself. CFDs are popular with experienced investors due to leverage and ease of short-term trading. CFD platforms in South Africa typically charge a spread (the difference between buy and sell price) and possibly an overnight financing fee if you hold positions for more than a day.

Example

For example, with USD 1,000 (ZAR 18,800) and 5x leverage, your market exposure rises to USD 5,000 (ZAR 94,000).
✔️ Gain scenario:
If Anduril shares rise by 8%, your CFD position increases by 8% × 5 = 40%.
Result: +USD 400 (ZAR 7,520) profit, on your initial outlay of USD 1,000 (excluding spreads and finance charges).

Final advice

Before you invest, it’s crucial to compare brokers’ fees, trading platforms, and support for international shares. Your choice between spot buying and CFD trading should reflect your risk appetite, investment time horizon, and whether ownership or leverage is more important to you. Explore the comprehensive broker comparison lower down this page to make an informed and confident choice tailored to your investment strategy.

Our 7 tips for buying Anduril stock

The latest news about Anduril

Anduril Industries remains a private company and is not publicly traded on any bourse. As such, retail investors in South Africa and elsewhere currently have no means of direct participation in Anduril’s capital, and there have been no IPO developments or new secondary market alternatives for South African residents announced in the last week. Any financial exposure to Anduril continues to be restricted to institutional and qualified private placement channels, with no sign of immediate regulatory or structural changes that would alter this status for local investors.

Anduril’s valuation has doubled to $28 billion following a major funding round in February 2025, supported by strong institutional investor demand. This leap marks one of the most significant capitalizations in the global defense tech sector and reflects market confidence in Anduril’s growth. While private, this surge and the company’s estimated revenue for 2024—now $1 billion, up 119% year-on-year—signal exceptional health, with positive implications for the future IPO potential that would interest South Africa’s institutional investors and the wider financial community.

The company secured several high-profile defense contracts totaling over $400 million between October 2024 and February 2025, expanding its global customer base. Recent deals, including U.S. Navy counter-drone systems and cybersecurity frameworks for the U.S. Department of Defense, further cement Anduril’s credibility and recurring revenue streams. These contracts not only reinforce the company’s financial momentum but also support ongoing international defense technology flows that can influence allied countries like South Africa, which may look to similar solutions or future technology transfer partnerships.

Anduril’s expansion through new manufacturing facilities and partnerships with technology leaders Palantir and Meta demonstrates operational growth and innovation leadership. The construction of new autonomous systems factories in Ohio and collaborations on military AR/VR and joint AI capabilities position Anduril at the frontier of next-generation defense systems. This innovation trajectory is highly relevant for South African analysts as it may set benchmarks for future procurement or partnership opportunities for both state and private security sectors in the region.

Official communications from Anduril’s founder have reaffirmed the intent for a public offering, with timing possibly accelerating in light of rapid growth. Palmer Luckey’s recent statements emphasizing the importance of going public give credibility to IPO speculation and should be closely monitored by South African professional investors to ensure strategic positioning when such an event occurs. Until then, the company’s robust fundamentals and expansion into allied defense ecosystems increase its relevance as a peer for comparative analysis with listed defense and AI companies accessible locally.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.