Should I buy Suncor stock in 2025? Expert Advice for ZA Investors

What is Suncor?

How much is the Suncor stock?

The price of Suncor stock is rising this week. As of now, Suncor is trading at 49.38 CAD on the TSX, showing a 1.02% gain over the past 24 hours and a +0.67% increase for the week.

These figures reflect a balanced combination of steady income potential and moderate volatility—an appealing prospect for investors in the current ZA market context.

Our full analysis on the Suncor stock

Having carefully reviewed Suncor Energy Inc.'s (SU) latest financial results alongside its stock performance across the past three years, this analysis leverages a multi-factor approach—combining advanced financial indicators, proprietary technical signals, comparative peer data, and sectoral macro trends. Their recent reports, corroborated by a raft of expert market commentaries and our own analytic algorithms, suggest emerging strengths warranting close consideration. So, why might Suncor stock once again become a strategic entry point into the global energy sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Despite a challenging year for the energy sector, marked by commodity price volatility and sector rotation, Suncor has demonstrated notable resilience in terms of both operations and market sentiment. As of 30 May 2025, the stock trades at CAD 49.38 on the TSX and USD 35.76 on the NYSE, posting a marginal intraday gain of 1.02% (TSX) and 1.22% (NYSE). While the 12-month return stands at -9.34% and the six-month move shows a dip of -11.46%, recent price stabilization and upward ticks confirm renewed investor confidence.

On a one-week basis, the stock has gained 0.67%, benefitting from a marked improvement in business fundamentals—a pattern increasingly echoed sector-wide as oil prices stabilize and refineries resume higher throughput. Recent events, such as Suncor’s record Q1 2025 financial performance and a firm stance on generous shareholder returns, have further bolstered sentiment. The board’s approval of a healthy quarterly dividend and a successful AGM reinforce trust in management’s strategic direction.

The macro backdrop remains favourable, with the global energy market rebalancing post-2024 supply shocks and North America’s continued dominance in integrated oil and gas. Critical for South African investors, the weak rand makes USD- and CAD-denominated equities relatively more attractive, augmenting overseas portfolio diversification. Compared to key peers, Suncor’s integrated model insulates it from acute commodity fluctuations, creating a tailwind for a medium-term rerating.

Technical Analysis

• RSI (14 days): 56.59, indicating neither overheated nor oversold conditions, with upward bias.
• MACD (12,26,9): At 0.06, crossovers and histogram signal persistent upward momentum.
• Moving Averages: The 20-day (USD 35.66), 50-day (USD 35.49), 100-day (USD 35.58), and 200-day (USD 35.38) are all below the current price, each flashing buy signals.
• Support Levels: The stock has established robust support around USD 35.00 (NYSE), with limited downside to the 52-week low of USD 30.79.
• Bullish Reversal: After finding support at this technical floor, the price’s break above major moving averages and formation of higher lows suggest a textbook bullish reversal.

Market algorithms and quantitative models widely flag a “Strong Buy” consensus, with 12 technical buy signals and no sell triggers. This is corroborated by a positive trend in volume and oscillators, with short- and medium-term momentum gaining traction. In sum, Suncor’s technical structure supports a scenario where the stock is poised to capitalize on any sector-wide or company-specific catalyst.

Fundamental Analysis

• Profitability and Growth: Q1 2025 net profit reached CAD 1.689 billion (CAD 1.36/share), with adjusted operating earnings of CAD 1.629 billion. Operational cash flow exceeded CAD 3 billion, outperforming analyst estimates and reflecting robust operational leverage.
• Strategic Expansion: Management continues to prioritize investment in high-margin projects, while its vertically integrated model (spanning upstream production, refining, and marketing) offers pricing power and cost resilience, rare among energy peers.
• Shareholder Returns: Over CAD 1.5 billion was returned to investors in Q1 2025 through dividends and share buybacks. The 4.66% yield (TSX), at a payout price-earnings ratio of just 10.12 (TSX) and 9.37 (NYSE), is among the most attractive in the sector. Price-to-book (1.35) and price-to-sales (1.14) ratios broadly confirm Suncor is trading at a discount to its historical averages and select peers.
• Structural Strengths: Under the leadership of CEO Rich Kruger (formerly of Imperial Oil), Suncor’s turnaround efforts post-2022 are bearing fruit. It retains a commanding share in Canadian oil sands, underpinned by over a century of sectoral experience, vertical integration, and an ongoing commitment to operational efficiency.
• Balance Sheet Health: A net debt reduction drive allows management the flexibility to allocate 100% of surplus cash to shareholder returns—an approach that, if sustained, will compound value creation over time.

Relative to other large-cap energy names, Suncor’s combination of yield, growth and discount valuation undeniably strengthens the bullish case.

Volume and Liquidity

• Trading Volume: Averaging 8.5 million shares daily over three months, Suncor enjoys vibrant and consistent liquidity on both the NYSE and TSX. This sustained activity signals robust market confidence and facilitates efficient entry and exit points for both institutional and private investors.
• Free Float: The stock’s healthy float ensures price efficiency and a dynamic, responsive market—conditions conducive to price discovery and supporting a robust valuation mechanism.
• Institutional Engagement: The consistent depth of market not only attracts but retains large-scale investors, reducing abrupt volatility typical of less liquid names.

For South African investors, this liquidity—denominated in two major hard currencies—allows Suncor to serve not just as a sectoral investment but also a geographic diversifier.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

• Production Upside: For FY2025, Suncor targets record daily output (810,000–840,000 barrels), supporting revenue and margin expansion. Operational efficiency programs and technological deployment in the oil sands further underpin production momentum.
• Financial Discipline: Having already hit net debt targets well ahead of schedule (Q1 2025), management is doubling down on commitments to capital returns and disciplined investment—factors viewed positively by both equity and credit markets.
• ESG and Innovation: Suncor’s investments in emission-reduction technologies and energy transition (including biofuels and renewables) position it to navigate the evolving regulatory landscape, aligning with the growing imperatives of institutional investors globally.
• Sector Tailwinds: A stabilizing oil price environment, coupled with persistent global underinvestment in new supply and geopolitical risk premiums, suggests a potential constructive cycle for integrated oil majors through 2025 and beyond.
• M&A and Strategic Growth: Suncor’s strong balance sheet provides optionality for acquisitions or further strategic expansions, both cited by analysts as potential re-rating events.
• Analyst Consensus: Street estimates now target a price objective of CAD 59.65 (TSX) / USD 57.00 (NYSE), implying nearly 60% upside from current levels—a projection underpinned by both tangible internal improvements and expectation of higher sector multiples.

These factors—unique operational strengths, a disciplined capital returns blueprint, and alignment with macro and ESG priorities—create a tapestry of tailwinds that are difficult to ignore.

Investment Strategies

• Short-Term: Recent technical reversals and aggressive support above the 20- to 200-day moving averages create a compelling base for swing trades or opportunistic entries. The confluence of a stabilizing share price, surging volume, and looming catalysts suggest attractive short-term setups.
• Medium-Term: Dividend investors can benefit from Suncor’s sector-leading yield, while recent cost discipline and operational upgrades lay the groundwork for further margin expansion. As interim production milestones are achieved and debt is further reduced, re-rating potential grows.
• Long-Term: For investors with a multi-year horizon, Suncor’s strategic pivot toward lower emissions and diversification within the energy value chain reinforces its “future-fit” credentials. Its vertical model, deep resource base, and established brand stand to benefit from any sector upcycle or global energy supply pivot.

Positioning ahead of the next earnings season or strategically scaling into current consolidation phases could see investors well-placed to capture both value appreciation and continued income.

Is it the Right Time to Buy Suncor?

In summary, Suncor stands out at this juncture for several key reasons: it boasts a healthy dividend yield, sustained production growth, a robust capital return profile, and technical signals pointing to the start of a new bullish phase. The dually listed structure (TSX/NYSE), combined with powerful operational and financial tailwinds and a valuation still below historical norms, means that the stock seems to represent an excellent opportunity for those seeking diversified exposure to the global energy sector in 2025.

For South African investors seeking growth, yield, and diversification outside their home market, Suncor’s well-capitalized model, compelling price-to-earnings ratio, and strong shareholder alignment elevate its standing considerably. The recent confluence of technical and fundamental catalysts justifies renewed interest. Overall, Suncor may be entering a new cycle of outperformance—backed by management execution, market sentiment, and industry trends.

The opportunity presented by Suncor at current levels appears highly attractive, and for investors looking to harness both value and income in a dynamic energy landscape, this stock deserves serious consideration as a core holding for 2025 and beyond.

How to buy Suncor stock in South Africa?

Buying Suncor stock online is simple and secure, especially when you use a regulated broker in South Africa. Today, investors have two main routes: you can opt for a direct, cash (spot) purchase of Suncor shares or choose Contracts for Difference (CFDs) for more flexibility and leverage. Both methods have their own features and risk profiles, making it easy to tailor your approach to your financial goals. We’ll highlight these options in detail, helping you decide which method suits you best. A comprehensive broker comparison is available further down this page.

Spot Buying

A cash purchase means you’re buying actual Suncor shares, making you a direct shareholder with the right to earn dividends and benefit from long-term performance. South African brokers typically charge a fixed commission per trade, often ranging from R80–R150 (or around $4–$8, depending on the platform and current exchange rate) in addition to a small percentage of the order value.

Important Information

Example: If the Suncor share price is $35.76 (NYSE, in USD), a $1,000 deposit will allow you to buy approximately 27 shares after accounting for a brokerage fee of around $5.
✔️ Gain scenario: If the share price increases by 10%, your shares would be worth $1,100.
Result: That’s a $100 gross gain, reflecting a 10% return on your investment (not accounting for exchange rate movements or taxes).

Trading via CFD

CFDs (Contracts for Difference) let you trade Suncor shares with only a fraction of the capital required to buy the shares outright. With CFDs, you’re speculating on price movements rather than owning the underlying stock. Fees for CFD trading typically include the spread (the difference between buy and sell price) and daily overnight financing if you hold positions longer than a day.

Important Information

Example: You open a CFD position on Suncor with a $1,000 investment and use 5x leverage, giving you effective market exposure of $5,000.
✔️ Gain scenario: If Suncor’s price rises by 8%, your total position gains 8% × 5 = 40%.
Result: That’s a $400 gross gain on your $1,000 stake (excluding spread and overnight financing costs).

Final Advice

Before investing, it’s essential to compare brokerage fees, commissions, and trading conditions—these can significantly impact your net returns. Whether you choose to own Suncor shares outright or trade via CFDs depends on your investment objectives and risk appetite. The best choice is the one that matches your goals and comfort with risk. For a detailed broker comparison tailored to South African investors, consult the section further down this page.

Our 7 tips for buying Suncor stock

The latest news about Suncor

Suncor delivered record first-quarter 2025 results with net earnings above analyst expectations and robust shareholder returns. For the period ending March 2025, Suncor posted a net profit of CAD 1.689 billion (CAD 1.36 per share) alongside adjusted operational earnings of CAD 1.629 billion (CAD 1.31 per share), both metrics exceeding consensus forecasts. The company's ability to generate over CAD 3 billion in adjusted funds from operations highlights persistent cash flow strength. Importantly for investors, Suncor returned CAD 1.5 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, reaffirming its commitment to distribute 100% of excess funds to shareholders, a policy that directly benefits institutional and retail holders worldwide, including those in South Africa seeking high and stable dividend yields.

Technical market signals for Suncor have turned decisively positive, with strong buy indications across all major technical indicators. As of May 29, 2025, relative strength index (RSI), MACD, and short- to long-term moving averages all pointed to strong buy signals. The technical summary shows 12 buy signals from moving averages and 10 from other technical indicators, with zero sell signals. This robust technical alignment, coupled with a weekly share price increase of 0.67% on the TSX and 1.22% intraday on the NYSE, supports a positive short-term outlook. For South African market participants, these trends are particularly relevant for momentum-driven strategies, ETFs, or indices tracking North American energy equities.

Analyst consensus signals an attractive upside of nearly 60% from current share price levels. With the average analyst target set at CAD 59.65 (USD 57.00), substantially above the current market price (CAD 49.38/ USD 35.76), Suncor is perceived as undervalued with strong prospective returns. This is especially significant for South African institutional investors and asset managers with mandates for global value and growth opportunities, as well as for those seeking exposure to world-leading energy companies with proven operational excellence.

Suncor’s quarterly dividend for May 2025 was affirmed at CAD 0.57 per share, underpinning income strategies for global investors. The consistent and substantial dividend—yielding approximately 4.47-4.66% depending on listing—makes Suncor’s stock appealing for South African investors prioritizing reliable income streams, whether via direct holdings, offshore portfolios, or funds offering foreign dividend exposure. This stable payout is supported by strong cash flow generation and a disciplined shareholder return policy, aligning well with income-oriented mandates and providing enhanced currency and sector diversification.

Suncor maintains a strong operational and financial position, with record production guidance and robust free cash flow generation for 2025. For the full year, the company projects oil production in the range of 810,000 to 840,000 barrels per day, reaffirming its dominance in the Canadian oil sands. Its vertically integrated structure, spanning extraction, refining, and marketing, provides resilience against oil market volatility and positions Suncor as a leading supplier to international markets, including key trading routes and partners relevant for South Africa’s refined product imports. The company's achievement of net debt targets further enables increased shareholder returns and sustained investment in productive capacity, all of which underpin its global standing and relevance for South Africa-based investors following commodity cycles and energy sector developments.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.