Should I buy Freeport-McMoRan stock in 2025?

What is Freeport-McMoRan?

How much is the Freeport-McMoRan stock?

The price of Freeport-McMoRan stock is rising this week. As of now, the share trades at $39.03, up 0.36% in the last 24 hours and showing a weekly gain of 3.58%.

The stock’s beta of 1.65 indicates notable volatility. For investors in South Africa, FCX offers strong exposure to global copper demand but comes with fluctuations that may reward those ready to handle market swings.

Our full analysis on the Freeport-McMoRan stock

Having thoroughly examined Freeport-McMoRan’s latest financial results and dissected the stock’s trajectory across the past three years, we have blended key financial metrics, technical signals, industry data, and peer group analysis through our proprietary models. This multi-faceted approach reveals compelling insights into the risk/reward profile at the current market juncture. So, why might Freeport-McMoRan stock once again become a strategic entry point into the global base metals and copper sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) is entering the mid-year period of 2025 following a period of notable volatility, characterized by shifting commodity cycles and evolving sectoral trends. As of 29 May 2025, FCX trades at $39.03, reflecting a modest intraday gain (+0.36%) and a weekly rise of 3.58%. While the stock has retraced by 11.7% over the past six months and 26% on a one-year horizon, recent movement signals a stabilisation phase potentially preceding a new upward cycle.

Importantly, Freeport’s Q1 2025 earnings report in April slightly surpassed consensus, demonstrating resilience despite cyclical sector headwinds. The subsequent announcement in May of a significant new drilling initiative in the British Columbia JOY district (in partnership with Amarc Resources) underscores ongoing strategic investment and resource extension. While US tariffs have created moderate concern around input costs, Freeport-McMoRan’s management has reaffirmed a robust forward outlook.

On a macro level, the company’s dominant position in the copper supply chain (responsible for over 70% of US production) is increasingly attractive amid burgeoning global demand—the result of AI proliferation, expanded data centre development, and energy infrastructure investment. These secular trends provide a favorable tailwind for copper pricing and volumes, reinforcing the thesis for allocation to global materials leaders such as FCX.

Technical Analysis

Recent technical signals for FCX paint an encouraging short- to medium-term picture. The stock is currently trading above the 20-, 50-, and 100-day simple moving averages ($38.11, $36.89, and $37.27 respectively), aligning with near-term ‘buy’ signals from our quantitative filters even as it remains just below the 200-day moving average ($40.64). This setup—consolidation above key short-term supports but below long-term resistance—is often a precursor to breakout scenarios, particularly when accompanied by rising momentum.

• RSI (14-day): At 56.07, the Relative Strength Index is neutral, suggesting there is room for the stock to appreciate before becoming technically overbought.
• MACD: Currently at 0.72, registers a mild ‘sell’ signal, but this should be interpreted alongside the moving average dynamics suggesting underlying strength.
• Key Support Level: $36.60—tested and held multiple times—serves as a robust technical floor.
• Near-term Resistance: $40.00—the stock is consolidating just below this threshold. A move above would likely catalyse greater institutional interest and trigger systemic buying.

Short-term structure is supported by healthy volume turnover and a lack of technical overextension, offering an attractive setup for those anticipating an inflection in cyclicals and metals.

Fundamental Analysis

Despite pressure from lower spot copper prices and tariff uncertainties in H1 2025, Freeport-McMoRan’s Q1 revenue of $5.73 billion and net earnings of $352 million exhibit the resilience of its globally diversified asset base. The company’s earnings per share ($0.24) aligned with consensus estimates, highlighting strong operational execution.

The current forward-looking P/E ratio of 32.22, while historically elevated, appears justified by the cyclical earnings trough and consensus expectations for accelerated growth as copper markets tighten. The current dividend yield stands at 1.54%, offering an appealing balance to growth and income-seeking portfolios.

Fundamental strengths to emphasise:

• Expansive Reserves: FCX boasts large-scale, long-life reserves in copper, gold, and molybdenum, with estimated 2025 output guidance at 4 billion pounds of copper and 1.6 million ounces of gold.
• Global Diversification: The company’s flagship Grasberg mine in Indonesia, strategic expansion efforts in North America, and a multi-continent exploration pipeline underpin long-term growth prospects.
• Strategic Expansion: Ongoing investments in Indonesia (notably ramping its new smelter in 2025) and drilling campaigns in Canada set the stage for both output and margin expansion.
• Market Share: Sustained leadership with 70% of US copper supply secures strategic pricing and bargaining power, especially relevant as copper enters a multi-year demand upcycle.
• Strong Governance: With CEO Kathleen Quirk at the helm and seasoned executive oversight, FCX’s governance structure inspires institutional confidence.

Peer comparisons also suggest valuation is attractive; Freeport-McMoRan trades at a forward P/E in line with sector norms, but with superior scale, cost structure, and reserve optionality.

Volume and Liquidity

A daily average trading volume of 17.36 million shares ensures excellent liquidity and tight bid-ask spreads, critical for institutional and retail participants alike. With a robust $55.85 billion market capitalization and a free float of nearly 1.43 billion shares, FCX offers flexible access to both tactical traders and long-term investors. Sustained volume, especially during technical breakout attempts, signals continuing market confidence in the underlying investment thesis.

The active float and global recognition foster dynamic re-rating potential, both from US and international capital flows—a key advantage in a sector increasingly shaped by resource nationalism and supply constraints.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Several structural catalysts support a constructive medium-to-long term view:

• Commissioning of Indonesian Smelter: The start-up of the new Grasberg smelter mid-2025 will unlock additional refining capacity and margin improvement, de-risking supply chains and supporting premium contract pricing.
• Copper Demand Supercycle: With the acceleration of artificial intelligence, cloud, and data infrastructure buildout, coupled with renewables deployment, copper is increasingly seen as a “new green oil.” Freeport-McMoRan’s dominance positions it to capture disproportionate upside from this secular demand tailwind.
• Strategic M&A and Exploration: Active exploration partnerships (notably with Amarc in Canada) may reveal further resource upside, while the company maintains optionality for accretive M&A should sector consolidation accelerate.
• ESG Leadership: Ongoing operational enhancements and adherence to sustainability principles further broaden FCX’s appeal to capital allocators with ESG mandates.

Sector-specific catalysts include:

• Rising copper prices in response to supply/demand imbalances.
• Regulatory support for critical metals and domestic supply chains, particularly in the US.
• Geopolitical diversification—assets situated across stable and growth-centric jurisdictions protect against localised risk.

The consensus among market analysts reflects this optimism, with a consensus price target of $44.17 (+13.2% above current levels) and a prevailing “Buy” recommendation.

Investment Strategies

Diverse investment strategies appear well-supported by FCX’s current positioning:

• Short-Term: Technical consolidation just below $40, with a well-defined support at $36.60, offers a favorable reward/risk profile for swing traders or those seeking a momentum breakout above 200-day moving average resistance.
• Medium-Term: Expectation of an operational ramp-up (notably from Indonesian smelter) and seasonal strength in copper markets could present an ideal medium-term entry point. Catalysts in the next two quarters may drive price toward, or above, consensus targets.
• Long-Term: Structural themes—energy transition, digital infrastructure, and undersupplied copper markets—create a compelling case for long-dated positions. FCX’s asset durability and market leadership ensure resilience, even through cyclical volatility.

Ideal entry strategies might involve:

• Gradual accumulation near current levels, utilizing technical pullbacks to support.
• Positioning in advance of the Indonesian smelter launch—a significant company-specific event.
• Use of option overlays for sophisticated investors to enhance yield or hedge short-term commodity swings.

Is it the Right Time to Buy Freeport-McMoRan?

Freeport-McMoRan’s profile, as it stands at the halfway point of 2025, reflects an enviable blend of scale, operational excellence, and strategic resource exposure. Despite sector volatility and tariff headwinds, the company has navigated cyclical lows with sound execution, preserved balance sheet flexibility, and continued to invest in future growth.

• The stock is consolidating above its key short- and medium-term supports, with mounting technical indications of a possible breakout should resistance at $40 be decisively cleared.
• Fundamentally, Freeport-McMoRan offers direct exposure to a multi-year copper demand supercycle—driven by megatrends unlikely to abate—backed by solid reserves and a world-class project pipeline.
• Macro momentum, technical positioning, and a visible slate of positive, company-specific catalysts combine to suggest that FCX may be entering a phase of renewed upside.

While prudent portfolio construction—aware of inherent commodity price volatility—remains essential, current dynamics appear to justify fresh interest from investors seeking both growth and diversification. The stock’s fundamentals, sector leadership, and near-term catalyst calendar seem to represent an excellent opportunity for those aiming to capture the next phase of global materials expansion.

In summary, with the copper sector poised for structural gains and Freeport-McMoRan at the apex of supply, positioning ahead of major catalysts—such as the Indonesian smelter ramp—could prove highly rewarding for investors focused on both tactical and strategic horizons. Now may be a particularly advantageous moment to give Freeport-McMoRan strong consideration as a core holding in a globally-oriented, materials-focused portfolio.

How to buy Freeport-McMoRan stock in South Africa?

Buying Freeport-McMoRan shares online is a straightforward and secure process, especially if you use a regulated broker authorised to serve investors in South Africa. You can either buy the shares directly (“spot buying”), becoming an actual shareholder, or trade them via CFDs (Contracts for Difference), which track the share price without owning the asset itself. Both methods have unique advantages and risk profiles—your choice will depend on your goals and experience level. For help deciding, you’ll find a detailed broker comparison further down the page.

Cash buying

A cash purchase means buying Freeport-McMoRan shares at their current price and owning them in your name via your broker’s custody account. This allows you to benefit from dividends and any capital gains if the share price rises. Brokers typically charge a fixed commission per order, often ranging from R70 to R150, or a small percentage (e.g. 0.5-1%) on JSE/US stocks.

Important example

With Freeport-McMoRan trading at $39.03 per share (about R713 at R18.27/USD), a R19,000 stake (roughly $1,000) lets you buy around 25 shares (R17,825), factoring in a brokerage fee of about R90 (±$5).

✔️ Gain scenario: If the share price rises by 10% to $42.93 (±R783), your 25 shares now total about R19,575. Result: +R1,750 gross gain (+10%) on your investment, before local taxes.

Trading via CFD

CFDs let you speculate on Freeport-McMoRan’s share movements without owning the shares themselves. You open a CFD position mirroring the stock’s value, often using leverage to multiply your exposure. Fees include the broker’s spread (the buy/sell price gap), and overnight financing charges if you hold positions for more than a day.

Important example

You deposit R19,000 (±$1,000) and use 5x leverage, giving you exposure to R95,000 (approx. $5,000) of FCX shares.

✔️ Gain scenario: If the stock rises by 8%, your position increases 8% × 5 (leverage) = 40% gain. Result: = R7,600 profit (±$400) on your initial R19,000, excluding spreads or overnight fees.

Final advice

Before you invest, carefully compare different brokers’ trading fees, commissions, platform reliability, and customer support—costs vary significantly and can impact your returns. The best method depends on your investment horizon, risk profile, and whether you want to own the actual shares or prefer the flexibility of CFDs for active trading. For your convenience, a comprehensive broker comparison is available further down this page. Always invest with a clear objective and a sound understanding of the associated risks.

Our 7 tips for buying Freeport-McMoRan stock

The latest news about Freeport-McMoRan

The Freeport-McMoRan stock has gained 3.58% over the past week, outpacing sector averages. This performance comes amid renewed optimism in the basic materials sector, supported by positive signals from global copper demand and sustained momentum in company operations. The strong weekly performance is viewed positively by the South African investment community, for whom metals and mining equities tend to serve as both growth and hedge instruments, especially given the domestic economy’s reliance on commodities exports and the global copper market’s strategic importance for local industry.

Freeport-McMoRan’s Q1 2025 results slightly beat Wall Street expectations, demonstrating operational resilience. The company reported a net income of $352 million and earnings per share of $0.24, in line with analyst estimates. While total revenue declined by 9.4% year-on-year, cost controls and solid execution provided reassurance about Freeport’s ability to navigate market volatility. This reliable earnings delivery is particularly relevant for South African asset managers who prioritize companies demonstrating discipline amid commodity price swings and who may seek international copper exposure due to the metal’s centrality in renewable energy and electrical infrastructure—an area of ongoing domestic focus.

The launch of a significant drilling program with Amarc Resources in British Columbia provides medium-term expansion potential. Announced in May 2025, this initiative signals Freeport’s continued strategic investment in high-potential jurisdictions, diversifying its resource base beyond its traditional U.S. and Indonesian operations. For South African investors, exploration successes—even in distant regions—often drive positive sentiment and rerate expectations, as they highlight resource security and growth optionality at a time when global supply faces structural constraints, and when local producers and investors are highly sensitive to news in the international copper market.

Technical signals remain mostly bullish, with Freeport-McMoRan trading above key short-, mid-, and long-term moving averages. Despite the stock staying marginally below the 200-day moving average—a sign of ongoing consolidation—buy signals from the 20-, 50-, and 100-day averages reflect underlying investor confidence. The neutrality of the Relative Strength Index (RSI 56.07) further suggests room for additional upward movement without near-term overbought risks, a pattern watched closely by professional traders and portfolio managers in South Africa who deploy technical analysis to inform timing of inflows and hedges within commodity-centric portfolios.

The positive global consensus outlook for copper underpins Freeport-McMoRan’s production guidance and supports analyst “Buy” recommendations. With AI-driven infrastructure buildouts, renewable energy transition trends, and new data center developments fueling copper demand, Freeport’s 2025 guidance of 4 billion pounds of copper sales and 1.6 million ounces of gold reinforces its stature as a sector leader. South African financial professionals, attuned to capitalizing on megatrends and supply/demand fundamentals, view sustained copper demand as a constructive backdrop—particularly for domiciled funds seeking global diversification and exposure to long-term structural growth markets aligned with Freeport’s operational footprint.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.