Should I Buy Alibaba Stock in 2025? (South Africa Edition)
Is Alibaba stock a buy right now?
ScoreAlibaba Group Holding Limited, a dominant force in China's e-commerce and technology sectors, remains a focal point for retail investors seeking international growth opportunities. As of late May 2025, Alibaba trades at approximately $117.18 on the NYSE, with a robust average daily trading volume of 22.39 million shares, illustrating the sustained engagement of global investors. The company recently posted quarterly revenue growth of 7%, totaling $32.5 billion, just below consensus forecasts—yet market reaction has been measured, appreciating Alibaba's underlying consistency amid shifting global demand. Key developments include a major partnership with SAP to bolster its cloud and AI offerings, alongside a substantial investment plan of RMB 380 billion over three years to reinforce its infrastructure. These moves signal Alibaba's commitment to maintaining its leadership in cloud computing and digital services across Asia. The overall market sentiment is constructive, buoyed by optimism around the cloud business and the company's ability to innovate through restructuring. In the current climate—where global tech peers have shown volatility—Alibaba stands out for its strong fundamentals and strategic adaptability. According to a consensus of more than 32 national and international banks, the target price is $152.33, underlining broad institutional confidence in the share’s future trajectory.
- ✅Leading e-commerce and cloud computing ecosystems in Asia with strong market share.
- ✅Accelerated investments in AI and cloud infrastructure, supporting long-term growth.
- ✅Organizational restructuring enhances agility and fosters business unit autonomy.
- ✅Stable profitability and resilient margins despite sector headwinds.
- ✅Expanding international footprint, targeting new growth in emerging markets.
- ❌Exposure to geopolitical tensions could impact US-listed ADR valuations.
- ❌Increasing competition is tightening margins across e-commerce and cloud segments.
Score- ✅Leading e-commerce and cloud computing ecosystems in Asia with strong market share.
- ✅Accelerated investments in AI and cloud infrastructure, supporting long-term growth.
- ✅Organizational restructuring enhances agility and fosters business unit autonomy.
- ✅Stable profitability and resilient margins despite sector headwinds.
- ✅Expanding international footprint, targeting new growth in emerging markets.
Is Alibaba stock a buy right now?
- ✅Leading e-commerce and cloud computing ecosystems in Asia with strong market share.
- ✅Accelerated investments in AI and cloud infrastructure, supporting long-term growth.
- ✅Organizational restructuring enhances agility and fosters business unit autonomy.
- ✅Stable profitability and resilient margins despite sector headwinds.
- ✅Expanding international footprint, targeting new growth in emerging markets.
- ❌Exposure to geopolitical tensions could impact US-listed ADR valuations.
- ❌Increasing competition is tightening margins across e-commerce and cloud segments.
Score- ✅Leading e-commerce and cloud computing ecosystems in Asia with strong market share.
- ✅Accelerated investments in AI and cloud infrastructure, supporting long-term growth.
- ✅Organizational restructuring enhances agility and fosters business unit autonomy.
- ✅Stable profitability and resilient margins despite sector headwinds.
- ✅Expanding international footprint, targeting new growth in emerging markets.
- What is Alibaba?
- How much is the Alibaba stock?
- Our complete analysis of the Alibaba stock
- How to buy Alibaba stock in South Africa?
- Our 7 tips for buying Alibaba stock
- The latest news about Alibaba
- FAQ
- On the same topic
What is Alibaba?
| Indicator | Value | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| 🏳️ Nationality | China | Exposure to Chinese regulatory and geopolitical risks impacts investor sentiment. |
| 💼 Market | NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) | Listed in the US as an ADR, accessible to global, including South African, investors. |
| 🏛️ ISIN code | US01609W1027 | International security identifier; essential for cross-border trading and fund inclusion. |
| 👤 CEO | Eddie Wu | CEO since September 2023; tasked with driving restructuring and technology innovation. |
| 🏢 Market cap | $281.74 billion | Large-cap company; scale supports strategic investments, but volatility remains a consideration. |
| 📈 Revenue | $32.5 billion (Q1 2025) | Revenue grew 7% year-on-year, but slightly missed analyst expectations. |
| 💹 EBITDA | Not explicitly disclosed (Net income: $1.7 billion Q1 2025) | Indicates potential margin pressure; details needed for full profitability analysis. |
| 📊 P/E Ratio (Price/Earnings) | 15.73 | Fair valuation for a tech leader, with future growth in cloud and AI seen as opportunities. |
How much is the Alibaba stock?
The price of Alibaba stock is rising this week. Currently, Alibaba is trading at $117.18, showing a 0.38% increase over the past 24 hours, but with a weekly change of -3.54%. The company’s market capitalisation stands at $281.74 billion, with a three-month average daily volume of 22.39 million shares. Alibaba’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 15.73, the dividend yield is 0.88%, and the stock beta is 0.97, indicating near-average market volatility. For South African investors, Alibaba offers a balance of growth and stability, making it a compelling option to watch in a global portfolio.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $117.18 |
| 24h Change | 0.38% |
| Weekly Change | -3.54% |
| Market Cap | $281.74 billion |
| 3-Month Average Daily Volume | 22.39 million |
| P/E Ratio | 15.73 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.88% |
| Beta | 0.97 |
Our complete analysis of the Alibaba stock
After reviewing Alibaba’s most recent quarterly results and thoroughly assessing the stock’s performance over the last three years, we have applied our proprietary quantitative models that synthesize financial health, technical dynamics, macroeconomic data, and competitive intelligence. The analysis reveals a compelling narrative driven by both fundamental strength and a resurgence in investor interest. So, why might Alibaba stock once again become a strategic entry point into the global tech and e-commerce sector in 2025?
Recent Performance and Market Context
Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) is showing renewed signs of dynamism in 2025, building on a significant turnaround from its prior lows. As at 29 May 2025, Alibaba traded at $117.18 per ADR—representing a remarkable +47.16% gain over the past year and +38.20% year-to-date. This performance is particularly notable given the -14.19% decline over the last six months, reflecting both the volatility typical of leading Chinese tech stocks and a volatile macro environment.
Recent positive developments have played a role in catalyzing Alibaba’s rebound. The announcement of a strategic partnership with SAP to co-develop next-generation cloud and AI solutions has positioned the group at the core of two of the most promising secular growth themes: artificial intelligence and cloud computing. Additionally, Alibaba’s Q4 2025 results showed a healthy 7% year-on-year revenue growth to $32.5 billion (RMB 236.45 billion), reinforcing the sustained underlying demand across its e-commerce, cloud, and digital entertainment platforms—even as the headline number fell slightly short of consensus expectations.
On the macro front, several tailwinds favor Alibaba’s operational context:
- Accelerating digitalization in Asia and emerging markets
- Continued global e-commerce adoption
- Recent signs of regulatory stabilization in China
- Resilient consumer spending in key sectors
Collectively, these elements create conditions conducive to robust business momentum, underscored by improving investor sentiment and a sense that Alibaba is repositioning for a new growth phase.
Technical Analysis
Technical indicators underscore a constructive setup for BABA as the second half of 2025 unfolds. The current 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46.10 signals a neutral positioning, suggesting untapped upside potential rather than overbought conditions. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stands at 0.56, indicating early bullish momentum alongside the absence of technical exhaustion.
Key technical considerations include:
- Strong primary support at $82.43, with immediate supports at $116.70 and $117.91 providing robustness in the stock’s current range
- Resistance cluster at $123.45–$125.76, and a pivotal 52-week high of $148.43—regions that, if breached, could accelerate capital flows and upward momentum
- Trading range of $71.80–$148.43 over 52 weeks, with the current price near the lower half, implying attractive asymmetry for buyers willing to position early
Overall structure suggests that BABA may have completed a medium-term consolidation and is poised for a bullish inflection. The combination of resilient price action, favorable momentum readings, and well-defined technical basing strengthens the argument for a renewed upward trend.
Fundamental Analysis
Alibaba’s underlying fundamentals remain compelling. Despite narrowly missing analyst revenue estimates in the latest quarter, the group’s top line posted robust 7% annual growth—demonstrating resilience against external headwinds and competitive pressures.
Key financial highlights as of Q4 2025:
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue | $32.5 billion for the quarter (RMB 236.45 billion) |
| Net income attributable to ordinary shareholders | $1.70 billion |
| Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio | 15.73 (discount to historical average and global tech peers) |
| Dividend yield | 0.88% ($0.95/share) |
Strategically, Alibaba’s focus on cloud, AI, and international expansion sets the stage for secular growth. The group has earmarked RMB 380 billion over three years for investment in cloud infrastructure and artificial intelligence—outlays that signal management’s commitment to maintain technology leadership and defend market share. The ongoing restructuring into six semi-autonomous business units is also likely to unlock operational agility, align incentives, and enhance long-term value creation.
Further, Alibaba maintains category leadership in the world’s largest e-commerce market, backed by:
- A dominant digital services ecosystem in China
- Expanding global logistics and cloud footprint through Cainiao and Alibaba Cloud
- Continued AI innovation and IP development
An attractive valuation, combined with a powerful brand and scalable platforms, justifies a positive long-term bias and fosters renewed institutional interest.
Volume and Liquidity
Alibaba’s consistently high trading volume underpins solid liquidity and reflects confidence from global institutional investors. The 3-month average daily volume stands at 22.39 million shares, ensuring minimal friction for large transactions and facilitating efficient price discovery.
With a public float of approximately 2.39 billion ADRs and a market cap of $281.74 billion, BABA is deeply liquid. This robust trading activity not only indicates strong investor engagement but also supports a dynamic valuation environment—potentially enabling swift re-ratings as catalysts materialize.
Catalysts and Positive Outlook
Alibaba’s outlook is supported by multiple, tangible bullish catalysts:
- Cloud and AI Expansion: With over RMB 380 billion in planned investment, Alibaba Cloud is positioned to drive multi-year growth, particularly as digital transformation accelerates across Asia and emerging markets. The partnership with SAP to integrate cloud and AI solutions adds further credibility and scale to these ambitions.
- International Growth: The group’s push into emerging markets and ongoing development of logistics and digital platforms signals sustained top-line expansion beyond China’s borders.
- Ecosystem Development: Continuous enhancements to the e-commerce ecosystem—including consumer services, fintech integration, and digital entertainment—enable cross-selling and recurring engagement.
- Operational Restructuring: The move to six autonomous business units is likely to drive accountability, unlock synergies, and foster entrepreneurial dynamism within each segment.
- Regulatory Normalization: Softer regulatory rhetoric and pragmatic policy shifts may reduce headline risk and restore foreign investor confidence in Chinese tech.
- Dividend Upside: The scheduled ex-dividend date (12 June 2025) with a projected $1.05 payout could attract a new investor cohort seeking yield in a growth context.
Altogether, this convergence of technological innovation, geographic expansion, capital investment, and governance reform signals a decidedly optimistic trajectory.
Investment Strategies
The current technical and fundamental setup presents multiple avenues for investors to position across short-, medium-, and long-term horizons:
- Short-Term:
- Buying interest may accelerate near technical support zones ($116.70–$118.60), particularly ahead of key events such as the next ex-dividend date or earnings release.
- Tactical traders might capitalize on mean reversion potential and event-driven volatility, with resistance at $123.45–$125.76 as an initial target.
- Medium-Term:
- Positioning during the present consolidation phase could allow exposure to potential upside as management executes on cloud/AI partnerships and international expansion.
- The completion of business unit restructuring may provide incremental newsflow and sentiment uplift.
- Long-Term:
- Alibaba’s compelling valuation (P/E 15.73), robust cash flow generation, and market leadership make it a strong candidate for patient capital.
- The stock’s proximity to primary support and well below its historical highs creates an attractive risk-reward dynamic for investors seeking growth compounded by yield.
- Key long-term catalysts—cloud and AI leadership, global logistics scaling, and regulatory stability—heighten the potential for sustained appreciation.
Positioning at technical lows or ahead of scheduled catalysts (such as major partnerships and results announcements) appears strategically well-founded, maximizing upside participation and minimizing entry risk.
Is It the Right Time to Buy Alibaba?
To summarize, Alibaba boasts a powerful combination of resilient core revenues, margin-accretive expansion into AI and cloud, robust liquidity, and a valuation that remains exceptionally attractive relative to global technology peers. The business is buttressed by strategic restructuring, a dominant ecosystem, and the foresight to invest heavily into next-wave technologies. With high trading volumes reflecting broad market confidence and the prospect of multiple positive catalysts on the horizon, the stock seems to represent an excellent opportunity for investors seeking to participate in both the ongoing digital revolution and the resurgence of Chinese tech.
While inherent risks remain, particularly on the geopolitical and competitive fronts, the magnitude and quality of Alibaba’s counter-cyclical strengths justify renewed interest. The current market environment appears ideally poised for those looking to establish or augment exposure to a global leader with outsized upside potential. For investors in South Africa and beyond, Alibaba may well be entering a new, sustained bullish phase—one that rewards patient, conviction-driven capital.
The opportunity presented by Alibaba today stands out as one of the most compelling in the technology sector, underscored by tangible growth drivers and a reinvigorated strategic vision.
How to buy Alibaba stock in South Africa?
Buying Alibaba shares online is straightforward and secure for South African investors when using a regulated broker. Nowadays, you can access international markets within minutes, opening a trading account and depositing funds in ZAR. There are two main ways to invest: buying Alibaba shares directly (spot/cash purchase), and trading Alibaba via CFDs (Contracts for Difference), which allows you to speculate on price changes with leverage. Both methods are supported by modern, reputable platforms. To choose the best partner for your needs, take a look at the broker comparison further down this page.
Spot buying
A cash/spot purchase means you actually become the owner of Alibaba shares, registered in your name or via a custodian. This method suits investors who want to hold their shares and benefit from any dividends, as well as long-term capital appreciation. When you buy Alibaba stock through a broker, typical fees may include a fixed commission per trade—often around R100 to R150 (or about $5 to $8), depending on the platform.
Example
Suppose Alibaba is trading at $117.18 per share and your stake is $1,000 (about R18,500, at a USD/ZAR rate of 18.5). After deducting a $5 brokerage fee, you have $995 left to invest. You can therefore buy approximately 8 Alibaba shares ($995 ÷ $117.18 ≈ 8 shares).
✔️ Gain scenario: If the share price rises by 10% (to $128.90), your 8 shares are now worth $1,031.20.
Result: +$100 gross gain, or +10% on your investment (excluding minor currency conversion costs and taxes).
Trading via CFD
CFD trading lets you speculate on Alibaba’s share price without owning the actual shares, using leverage (borrowed funds). This means you can take both upward (long) and downward (short) positions. With CFDs, fees usually include a spread (the difference between buy and sell price) and, for positions held overnight, overnight financing charges. CFDs are popular with active traders aiming to profit from price movements in the short term.
Example
You invest $1,000 (about R18,500) on Alibaba CFDs with 5x leverage, giving you $5,000 market exposure.
If Alibaba shares rise by 8%, your position appreciates by 8% × 5 = 40%.
Result: That’s a $400 profit on your $1,000 margin—before fees and taxes.
Note: Leverage also increases your risk. If the price falls, your losses can be proportionally larger.
Final advice
Before buying Alibaba shares (spot) or trading them via CFDs, always compare brokers’ fees, trading platforms, and customer service. Our comprehensive broker comparison further down the page can help you make an informed choice. Ultimately, the right method depends on your goals: long-term investors may prefer buying shares directly for steady growth and dividends, while traders seeking short-term opportunities might favor CFDs. In all cases, start with a clear strategy—and invest only the capital you can afford to risk.
Compare the best brokers in South Africa!Compare brokersOur 7 tips for buying Alibaba stock
| 📊 Step | 📝 Specific tip for Alibaba |
|---|---|
| Analyze the market | Review Alibaba’s financial growth, especially current revenue trends and recent stock volatility, to understand if momentum fits your risk appetite as a South African investor. |
| Choose the right trading platform | Select a South African-friendly platform that gives access to US stocks (NYSE) with competitive forex rates and low commission fees on Alibaba ADRs. |
| Define your investment budget | Decide upfront how much of your portfolio you want to allocate to a single international stock like Alibaba, keeping room for exchange rate fluctuations (ZAR-USD). |
| Choose a strategy (short or long term) | Consider a long-term strategy to capture Alibaba's ongoing investment in AI and cloud, which are central to its international and tech expansion plans. |
| Monitor news and financial results | Stay updated on Alibaba’s quarterly earnings, partnerships (like with SAP), and management changes, as well as key developments in US-China relations. |
| Use risk management tools | Place stop-loss or trailing stop orders to help manage downside risk, especially due to Alibaba’s global exposure and market volatility. |
| Sell at the right time | Plan to take profits if Alibaba’s share price approaches resistance levels or before sensitive events, such as regulatory announcements or earnings releases. |
The latest news about Alibaba
Alibaba and SAP announced a strategic agreement to expand cloud and AI integration. This collaboration, disclosed within the last week, is designed to leverage Alibaba Cloud’s regional infrastructure—relevant to Sub-Saharan African businesses operating in China and seeking robust cloud and enterprise resource planning (ERP) solutions. For South African enterprises, the partnership signals Alibaba’s commitment to global standards and improved reliability, potentially enhancing cross-border e-commerce and business process integration for those trading between ZA and Asian markets.
Alibaba’s Q4 2025 earnings confirmed a 7% year-on-year revenue growth, reinforcing ongoing business resilience. The results, covering the period ending March 2025, underscore steady operational performance and sustained demand for e-commerce and cloud solutions. For South African investors, the persistence of such growth amidst global economic uncertainty emphasizes Alibaba’s defensive profile and its suitability for diversified, internationally oriented portfolios.
Alibaba’s upcoming dividend payout of $1.05 per ADR signals continued capital return to shareholders. The ex-dividend date set for June 12, 2025 offers income-focused investors in South Africa a near-term incentive and highlights management’s dedication to predictable shareholder returns—even as the company prioritizes significant investments in technology. This regular payout is of particular interest given South Africa’s growing pool of globally exposed private and institutional investors seeking stable foreign dividends.
The recent commitment to invest RMB 380 billion over three years into cloud and AI infrastructure strengthens Alibaba’s technology leadership. This move not only positions the group as a top-tier tech enabler in Asia but also represents an opportunity for regional digital transformation partners and clients—including those in Southern Africa—to benefit from scalable, high-performance cloud services as Alibaba expands its international footprint and cloud solution portfolio.
Technical indicators reflect a stable but upwardly biased trend, supporting analyst optimism and portfolio allocation strategies. With the stock up over 47% year-on-year and 38% year-to-date for 2025, and a moderate RSI of 46.1, current trading patterns suggest restrained volatility and constructive investor sentiment. This offers reassurance for South African investors looking for exposure to global technology growth with an emphasis on risk-adjusted performance and positive analyst coverage.
FAQ
What is the latest dividend for Alibaba stock?
Alibaba stock currently pays a dividend. The next dividend payment is scheduled for $1.05 per share, with the ex-dividend date on 12 June 2025. This represents a continuing dividend policy following the previous payout of $0.95 per share, reflecting growing shareholder returns. The current yield is moderate, and dividend growth may indicate management's confidence in future earnings.
What is the forecast for Alibaba stock in 2025, 2026, and 2027?
Based on the current price of $117.18, projections suggest Alibaba could reach around $152 at the end of 2025, $176 at the end of 2026, and $234 by the end of 2027. This outlook is supported by the company's strategic investments in cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and international expansion. Strong fundamentals and sector growth prospects further bolster long-term confidence.
Should I sell my Alibaba shares?
Holding onto Alibaba shares may be a reasonable approach, considering its resilient business model, improving financial performance, and leadership in e-commerce and cloud technology in Asia. The company’s recent restructuring enhances operational efficiency, and ongoing innovation efforts position Alibaba well for future growth. Investors seeking mid- to long-term value could benefit from the underlying momentum and steady fundamentals observed.
How are Alibaba dividends and capital gains taxed for South African investors?
For South African investors, dividends from Alibaba ADRs are subject to Chinese withholding tax before payment, and must also be reported for South African income tax. Capital gains from selling Alibaba shares are liable for capital gains tax in South Africa according to local thresholds. Note that Alibaba shares are not eligible for the local tax-free savings account (TFSA) scheme, and foreign exchange fluctuations may affect returns.
What is the latest dividend for Alibaba stock?
Alibaba stock currently pays a dividend. The next dividend payment is scheduled for $1.05 per share, with the ex-dividend date on 12 June 2025. This represents a continuing dividend policy following the previous payout of $0.95 per share, reflecting growing shareholder returns. The current yield is moderate, and dividend growth may indicate management's confidence in future earnings.
What is the forecast for Alibaba stock in 2025, 2026, and 2027?
Based on the current price of $117.18, projections suggest Alibaba could reach around $152 at the end of 2025, $176 at the end of 2026, and $234 by the end of 2027. This outlook is supported by the company's strategic investments in cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and international expansion. Strong fundamentals and sector growth prospects further bolster long-term confidence.
Should I sell my Alibaba shares?
Holding onto Alibaba shares may be a reasonable approach, considering its resilient business model, improving financial performance, and leadership in e-commerce and cloud technology in Asia. The company’s recent restructuring enhances operational efficiency, and ongoing innovation efforts position Alibaba well for future growth. Investors seeking mid- to long-term value could benefit from the underlying momentum and steady fundamentals observed.
How are Alibaba dividends and capital gains taxed for South African investors?
For South African investors, dividends from Alibaba ADRs are subject to Chinese withholding tax before payment, and must also be reported for South African income tax. Capital gains from selling Alibaba shares are liable for capital gains tax in South Africa according to local thresholds. Note that Alibaba shares are not eligible for the local tax-free savings account (TFSA) scheme, and foreign exchange fluctuations may affect returns.
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