Should I buy Phillips 66 stock in 2025? South Africa Edition

What is Phillips 66?

How much is the Phillips 66 stock?

The price of Phillips 66 stock is rising this week. As of now, PSX is trading at $114.68, marking a 1.69% increase over the last 24 hours and a 2.59% gain for the week.

The company holds a market capitalisation of $46.73 billion, with an average daily trading volume of 3,501,940 shares over the past three months.

With solid fundamentals and moderate volatility, Phillips 66 may appeal to South African investors seeking both income and growth potential in the energy sector.

Our complete analysis of the Phillips 66 stock

After reviewing Phillips 66's most recent financial disclosures alongside a rigorous evaluation of the stock’s three-year trajectory, our comprehensive, data-driven process—combining a multitude of financial signals, technical indicators, competitive benchmarking, and proprietary analytics—has distilled a nuanced portrait of the company’s current positioning. As the landscape for downstream energy evolves and Phillips 66 strategically intensifies its focus on capital returns, investors are increasingly curious about potential upside. So, why might Phillips 66 once again be poised as a strategic entry point into the global energy and refining sector as 2025 approaches?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX), an established leader in the petroleum refining and marketing space, is currently trading at $114.68 (as of 30 May 2025), reflecting a +1.69% intraday increase and a healthy +2.59% weekly gain. While the share price has pulled back -14.4% over the past six months and -17.0% over one year, this correction must be weighed against a robust, multi-year bullish cycle that saw the stock touch a 52-week high of $150.12 before consolidating. The current market capitalisation stands at $46.73 billion, underpinning the company’s significant scale within the sector.

• Dividend Enhancement: The board’s recent move to raise the quarterly dividend to $1.20 per share represents both confidence in ongoing free cash flow and a tangible reward to shareholders, with the yield now a compelling 4.26%.
• Aggressive Shareholder Returns: Since mid-2022, Phillips 66 has returned $12.5 billion to investors via share buybacks and dividends, reinforcing management’s commitment to capital discipline.
• Strategic Asset Disposals: The stated goal to raise over $3 billion through divestitures is set to further strengthen the balance sheet and streamline operation focus.

From a macro perspective, the global refining sector is steadily recovering from cyclical downshifts, aided by a stable regulatory backdrop, relatively resilient medium-term oil demand forecasts, and attractive refining margins, particularly in the North American market where Phillips 66 retains a dominant share. Notably for South African investors, Phillips 66’s exposure to global refined product markets and its strategy of energy transition (with an increased focus on renewables) broaden its appeal as a North American infrastructure play with global impact.

Technical Analysis

The technical configuration for PSX currently reveals a foundation that may be setting the stage for resurgence:

• Momentum Signals: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 51.82 points to a neutral position, indicating that the recent sell-off has largely neutralised overbought conditions.
• MACD: With a marginally negative current MACD (1.49, still flagging a slight ‘sell’), this typically signals a consolidation phase rather than a pronounced downtrend.
• Moving Averages:
• Short-term averages (20-day: $114.54; 50-day: $111.58) are holding above the current price, with the stock gently probing the upper band.
• Longer-term signals (100-day: $117.27; 200-day: $123.07) act as near-term targets, suggesting that a move above these thresholds could trigger strong momentum from technical buyers.

• Primary Support: $111.41, with the recent price action repeatedly bouncing from this floor.
• Immediate Resistance: $115.04, imminent and well within reach; a decisive move above would likely attract incremental interest.
• Medium-term Structure: The current price is comfortably situated within the 52-week range of $91.01 – $150.12, providing significant headroom for upward reversion.

In summary, PSX is in a transitionary technical phase but appears to be building a base, with recent stabilization above key supports—a classic hallmark of potential bullish reversal in large-cap names.

Fundamental Analysis

Despite cyclical volatility, Phillips 66’s fundamentals strongly underscore the company’s investment merits:

• Revenue and Profitability: With trailing twelve-month revenues at $137.77 billion, Phillips 66 remains an industry heavyweight. The Q1 2025 rebound to $487 million in reported profits (from a soft Q4) affirms management’s deft handling of margin fluctuations and sector headwinds.
• Peer-Group Valuation: Trading at a P/E multiple of 25.37, Phillips 66 is positioned attractively when adjusted for its robust cash flows and sector average forward growth. The consensus analyst price target of $132.47 implies a 15.5% appreciation from present levels, highlighting a valuation gap that may well catalyse renewed institutional inflows.
• Strategic Expansion: Recent years have brought an assertive pivot toward clean and renewable fuel production and an optimized asset base, which should further insulate margins and diversify earnings streams.
• Structural Strengths:
• Market Leadership: Persistent dominance in U.S. refining and a diversified portfolio (midstream, chemicals, retail, renewables) uniquely positions Phillips 66 as a multi-cycle winner.
• Cash Generation and Capital Return: The robust buyback and dividend policy, underpinned by consistently high operating cash flows, signals a shareholder-friendly posture rare at this scale.

These factors combine to portray a company with deep operational strengths and a fundamentally attractive valuation—both of which provide a sound margin of safety for new entrants.

Volume and Liquidity

Liquidity metrics for PSX reinforce the argument for investor confidence:

• Daily Average Volume: The three-month average daily volume stands at 3.50 million shares, a level that supports efficient execution for institutional and retail participants alike.
• Float and Visibility: With 407.44 million shares outstanding and steady volume, the float is optimally sized for dynamic price discovery. This liquidity profile helps maintain pricing integrity and minimises volatility risk.

Such robust trading liquidity ensures that PSX’s value re-rating, once under way, can be sustained on a broad base of participation. For South African investors, this means that entry and exit can be managed efficiently, even for larger transactions.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Looking forward, multiple high-visibility growth and value catalysts are converging:

• Energy Transition Strategy: Phillips 66 is actively realigning its business around renewables, both as a regulatory hedge and a growth driver. Investments in renewable diesel production and biofuels position the company as a credible energy transition partner for the long term.
• Strategic Asset Sales and Portfolio Optimisation: The targeted $3 billion in divestitures will unlock capital, reduce leverage, and enhance strategic optionality.
• Capital Return Commitment: With an ongoing $13–15 billion capital return programme through 2024, ongoing buybacks and dividends are poised to drive both share price and shareholder yield.
• Operational Efficiency: Cost-control measures and the focus on high-return assets continue to underpin margin resilience—an especially important factor given the historical volatility of refining spreads.

These catalysts suggest a period of positive re-rating potential ahead, particularly as investor sentiment in the broader energy sector pivots toward proven, resilient operators.

Investment Strategies

A variety of entry strategies appear attractive, dependent on risk profile and investment horizon:

• Short-Term:
• Momentum traders may view a breakout above $115 as an optimal entry trigger, with clear stop-losses set below $111.41. The robust short-term bounce and stabilization around current levels suggest an imminent upward move.
• Medium-Term:
• Investors seeking medium-term appreciation could target accumulation on dips or during further consolidations—especially if technical signals align with fundamentals, and ahead of key corporate events (such as asset sale announcements or quarterly reports).
• Long-Term:
• Dividend and value-oriented portfolios may favour phasing into a position at or near current prices, given the rare combination of above-market dividend yield, strong free cash flow, and multi-decade sector leadership. The stated commitment to capital returns and strategic transition plan enhances long-term conviction.

Importantly, the present technical and fundamental setup means that investors across timeframes may find this juncture exceptionally well-suited to initiate or add to positions, aided by clear catalysts and manageable downside.

Is It the Right Time to Buy Phillips 66?

In summary, Phillips 66 presents a compelling investment opportunity grounded in sector leadership, operational excellence, and a forward-looking strategy at the very moment when energy transition themes intersect with attractive valuations. With a near-15% upside to consensus price target, a 4.26% dividend yield, and a disciplined capital return record, the stock’s risk-reward profile seems ideally skewed for buyers seeking both immediate income and long-term appreciation. The ongoing restructuring and focus on renewables add a futureproofing angle that few legacy refiners can match.

With robust liquidity, a dynamic technical outlook, and a forthcoming wave of strategic catalysts, Phillips 66 may indeed be entering a new bullish phase. For investors seeking diversified portfolio exposure to the global energy complex—with firmly established governance and a bias toward capital efficiency—the case for serious consideration has seldom been stronger.

Today’s confluence of fundamentals and technicals suggests that Phillips 66 is positioned to reward conviction—making the current environment one of attractive promise and significant potential for value-driven investors.

How to buy Phillips 66 stock in South Africa?

Buying Phillips 66 stock online is both simple and secure when using a regulated broker in South Africa. Investors can choose between two main methods: directly buying shares for long-term holding (“spot” buying), or trading derivatives such as CFDs (Contracts for Difference), which allow for flexible strategies and leverage. Both methods are accessible via user-friendly platforms, designed to protect your funds and confidential information. To make the most suitable choice for your needs, compare the fees, features, and regulatory status of leading brokers—discover our detailed comparison further down this page.

Spot Buying

A cash (or “spot”) purchase of Phillips 66 shares means you directly own the company’s stock. This traditional method is ideal for investors seeking real ownership and the possibility to receive dividends. Typically, South African brokers charge a fixed commission per order, often ranging from R100 to R250 (or an equivalent in USD if trading offshore), plus possible small custody or FX fees.

Example

Suppose the Phillips 66 share price is $114.68 and your investment budget is $1,000. Subtracting a standard $5 brokerage fee, you can buy roughly 8 shares:
$1,000 - $5 = $995 available for shares
$995 / $114.68 ≈ 8 shares

✔️ Gain scenario

If the share price rises by 10%, your 8 shares are now worth about $1,100 in total.
Result: That’s a $100 gross gain, or +10% on your initial investment (before tax and fees).

Trading via CFD

CFDs (Contracts for Difference) on Phillips 66 shares let you speculate on the price movement—up or down—without owning the underlying shares. This dynamic approach is popular for its flexibility and the use of leverage, but it involves higher risk. Main costs include the spread (the gap between buy/sell prices), plus overnight financing fees if you hold positions after market close.

Example

You open a CFD position on Phillips 66 with a $1,000 margin and 5× leverage. This gives exposure to $5,000 worth of stock. If the share price climbs by 8%, your position delivers a 40% gain (8% × 5):
Result: A $400 gain on your $1,000 margin—excluding any platform fees or overnight charges.

Final Advice

Before you begin, it’s crucial to compare the costs, trading conditions, and support offered by each broker. Some focus on low commissions, others on advanced tools or responsive service. Your ideal method depends on your investment horizon, risk tolerance, and need for flexibility. Whether you prefer the stability of direct share ownership or the agility of CFDs, our broker comparison tool further down this page will help you make a well-informed decision tailored to your financial goals.

Our 7 tips for buying Phillips 66 stock

The latest news about Phillips 66

Phillips 66 stock recorded a weekly gain of 2.59%, outperforming many US energy sector peers. This positive price momentum is particularly relevant for ZA-based investors who closely monitor diversified energy stocks traded on large international markets for portfolio resilience. The company’s shares not only advanced firmly in the last week but also closed above key short-term moving averages, signaling technical support for further consolidation or gains. Given that South African institutional and retail participants often use US-listed energy majors as proxies for global oil and fuel demand, this sustained rebound may reflect strengthening investor sentiment and serves as a constructive signal for diversification into USD-denominated energy assets.

Phillips 66 announced an increase in its quarterly dividend to $1.20 per share, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns. This move brings the annualized dividend yield to 4.26%, which stands out in the context of international income-focused portfolios, including those held by South African investors who prioritize stable US dividends for hard currency hedging and income generation. Dividend growth is also a positive indicator of Phillips 66’s confidence in underlying cash generation and future prospects, making it a relevant selection for ZA pension funds and private wealth channels seeking consistent dollar-based payouts.

The company reported a strong recovery in Q1 2025 earnings, posting $487 million in profits, up significantly from the previous quarter. Earnings improvement after the challenging close to 2024 demonstrates rapid operational and market adaptability, which is important for emerging-market investors seeking established companies with dependable recovery trajectories. This financial momentum strengthens Phillips 66’s appeal in South Africa, where participants closely track earnings quality and US market resilience to inform their own tactical equity exposures.

Phillips 66 resumed strategic asset sales targeting over $3 billion, further enhancing its balance sheet and capital flexibility. For ZA analysts and institutions that monitor US energy players’ capital management and restructuring, these well-communicated divestitures underscore prudent portfolio optimization and fuel confidence regarding the sustainability of both dividend policy and future capital returns. The proceeds from these asset sales will help buffer the company against sectoral volatility, particularly relevant when emerging-market currencies like the rand experience heightened fluctuations against the dollar.

Analyst consensus remains bullish, with a mean price target of $132.47, representing more than 15% upside from current levels. This positive outlook reflects both structural advantages in US refining and consistent progress on energy transition initiatives such as renewable fuels, which are monitored with growing interest by South African market participants attuned to global ESG trends and green infrastructure development. With Phillips 66 trading at a considerable discount to consensus targets, the stock’s risk/reward profile continues to be viewed favorably by international investors and local asset managers seeking robust, high-quality exposure to the energy value chain.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.