Should I Buy Dollar Tree Stock in 2025? Insights for South African Investors

What is Dollar Tree?

How much is the Dollar Tree stock?

The price of Dollar Tree stock is rising this week. As of the latest close, the stock stands at $90.58, up by $1.24 (1.39%) over the last 24 hours and gaining 1.87% during the week. The company’s market capitalization is $19.04 billion, with an average daily volume of 5.23 million shares traded over the past three months. Dollar Tree holds a price/earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.49, offers a 0% dividend yield, and maintains a beta of 0.87, indicating lower-than-market volatility. Given its stable fundamentals and moderate volatility, the stock could appeal to South African investors looking for steady exposure to US consumer retailers.

Our full analysis on the Dollar Tree stock

Having conducted a thorough review of Dollar Tree’s latest financial results and stock behavior over the past three years, and after synthesizing fundamental, technical, and market data through in-house analytic algorithms, our analysis reveals several drivers propelling renewed interest in this leading discount retail stock. The strategic disposal of underperforming assets, attractive valuation metrics, and a revitalized growth agenda all converge to create a timely narrative. So, why might Dollar Tree stock once again become a strategic entry point into the consumer defensive sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Dollar Tree (NASDAQ: DLTR) is trading at $90.58 as of 30 May 2025, reflecting a robust 6-month appreciation of +27.09%. Although the 12-month performance is down -20.43%, this masks a significant pivot: the stock rebounded strongly from its 52-week low of $60.49, and now sits near the upper end of its trading range. Most notably, following the March 2025 announcement of Family Dollar’s sale for $1 billion—a move enabling Dollar Tree to shed low-performing operations and refocus on its core business—shares surged by over 8% in a single session. This sharp response underlines market confidence in Dollar Tree’s renewed strategy.

Sectorally, Dollar Tree benefits from macroeconomic crosswinds: persistent inflationary environments in the US and across global markets have driven incremental demand for discount retail. The defensive nature of the sector—providing essential goods at accessible prices—has made value retailers increasingly attractive, particularly to middle- and high-income consumers seeking resilient alternatives as living costs rise. For investors in South Africa, Dollar Tree’s exposure to the world’s largest consumer market and its status as a consumer staple underscore its appeal as a global diversification play during periods of economic uncertainty.

Technical Analysis

Technical signals reinforce the positive near- and medium-term trend. With a 14-day RSI at 61.64, Dollar Tree’s momentum is tilting bullish without approaching an overbought level. The MACD stands strong at 3.05, triggering a solid buy signal, while the Williams %R at -20.90 and supportive moving averages—20-day at $86.18, 50-day at $78.65, 100-day at $75.32, and 200-day at $74.29—all corroborate a bullish set-up. The confluence of these moving averages well below the current price points to continued upward pressure.

Key support is established at $88.87, providing a technical floor just beneath current levels, while the day’s resistance at $90.70 is being tested, hinting at a potential breakout if positive earnings or news flow materializes. On the whole, the technical consensus signals a strong buy stance, further validating the case for considering Dollar Tree as a timely entry opportunity.

Fundamental Analysis

From a fundamental perspective, Dollar Tree’s financial profile is compelling. The company closed out Q4 2024 with net sales of $17.58 billion and net profit of $1.04 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) over the trailing twelve months stands at $4.90. Projected 2025 revenues of $18.5–$19.1 billion (3–5% comparable store growth), alongside guided adjusted EPS of $5.00–$5.50, point toward sustained improvement and operational leverage following the divestment of Family Dollar.

Valuation is attractive: at a trailing P/E of 18.49 and a forward P/E of 17.51, Dollar Tree trades at a discount to historic sector medians and many consumer defensive peers, particularly given its renewed growth profile and efficiency gains. The absence of dividends reflects a focus on reinvestment, a common trait among high-growth US retailers. The company’s 5-year beta of 0.87 highlights moderate volatility and below-market risk, appealing for investors seeking to balance growth and stability.

Strategically, Dollar Tree is consolidating its market leadership in fixed-price discount retail ($1.25 price point) and is methodically expanding its footprint, with over 8,600 stores across the US and Canada. The recently launched Dollar Tree 3.0 format and ongoing supply chain optimizations further evidence its commitment to innovation and operational excellence. All these factors align to justify renewed investor interest at current price levels.

Volume and Liquidity

Sustained trading activity—over 5.23 million shares exchanged daily on average over the past three months—confirms strong market engagement and liquidity. This volume supports dynamic, efficient price discovery and fosters confidence among professional and individual investors alike. With a free float commensurate with its US blue chip status, Dollar Tree offers the ability to scale positions flexibly without exposure to illiquidity premiums.

Importantly for international investors, including those in South Africa seeking offshore diversification, Dollar Tree’s liquidity profile ensures minimal slippage and facilitates tactical or strategic entry in response to market-moving news.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Looking toward 2025, Dollar Tree is positioned at the intersection of several powerful catalysts:

• Strategic Refocus: The sale of Family Dollar liberates capital and management energy, enabling acceleration of Dollar Tree’s most profitable and brand-defining operations.
• Trade-down Effect: With inflation continuing to erode consumer purchasing power, Dollar Tree is capturing a widening demographic—drawing value-oriented middle and even upper-middle income consumers.
• Geographic Expansion: New store openings under the 3.0 format and selective footprint growth in attractive markets will drive comparable sales gains.
• Operational Optimisation: Improved processes, smarter merchandising, and AI-driven inventory management are expected to propel margins and working capital efficiency.
• ESG Momentum: As retailers increasingly face scrutiny on sustainability, Dollar Tree’s efforts around supply chain resilience and community impact are adding value beyond traditional financial metrics.
• Earnings Catalysts: The Q1 2025 results, due on 4 June (with consensus EPS expectations of $1.17–$1.20 on revenues of $4.52 billion), serve as the next focal point. Outperformance versus consensus could act as a trigger for upward price revision.

Sectoral tailwinds—ranging from steady US consumer demand to legislative support for essential goods and defensive retail—offer additional buffer and growth optionality, especially relevant for global investors targeting portfolio stability.

Investment Strategies

Dollar Tree’s current structure offers compelling arguments for multiple holding periods:

• Short Term: The imminent Q1 2025 results may serve as a tactical catalyst. Given price consolidation around $90 and technical support at $88.87, a timing strategy focused on earnings momentum or breakout from current resistance ($90.70) is logical.
• Medium Term: Re-rating potential is underpinned by ongoing operational execution, full realization of Family Dollar divestiture benefits, and an ongoing stream of store upgrades and expansion. Price targets in the $117.75 range (i.e., 30%+ upside from current levels) appear increasingly justified under consensus and our proprietary scenario models.
• Long Term: Dollar Tree’s model of defensiveness, growth, and innovation within a sector increasingly prized for resilience, has enduring appeal. As the company continues to optimize scale, brand, and technology, and as macro uncertainty persists globally, the stock offers a prudent avenue for long-term capital appreciation, especially for international portfolios.

For investors seeking an optimal technical entry, present levels may represent a particularly favorable zone, just ahead of a material inflection point—both from the pending earnings and medium-term structural catalysts.

Is It the Right Time to Buy Dollar Tree?

Dollar Tree stands out for its timely confluence of strategic focus, technical resilience, and attractive valuation. The company’s ability to shed underperforming assets, modernize its stores and operations, and maintain clear leadership in a sector built for uncertain times has created distinct upside potential. Technical momentum, robust trading volume, and the supportive macro environment further increase its visibility as a relevant opportunity, especially for South African investors desiring exposure to US-listed consumer leaders with compelling global themes.

With all key indicators pointing to the possibility of a sustained upward phase—supported by fresh catalysts and a more agile, focused business structure—the present moment seems to represent an excellent opportunity to evaluate Dollar Tree for portfolio inclusion. Renewed growth prospects, a proven management team, and a transformed business model all support increased optimism for the stock’s performance in the periods ahead.

Dollar Tree, now firmly streamlined and re-energized, appears set to reassert its role as a leader in North American discount retail. For investors with a strategic, growth-oriented mindset, current conditions and incoming catalysts create an environment where considering Dollar Tree as a cornerstone position may be both timely and rewarding.

How to buy Dollar Tree stock in South Africa?

Buying Dollar Tree (DLTR) stock online is easy and secure for investors in South Africa, particularly when using a regulated broker. You have two main options: buying the shares outright (“spot buying”) to actually own the stock, or trading Contracts for Difference (CFDs), which allow you to speculate on price movements without ownership. Each method suits a different investing style and risk appetite. To help you pick the best platform, you’ll find a detailed broker comparison further down the page.

Spot buying

A cash purchase means you buy Dollar Tree shares directly and hold them in your brokerage account. This is the classic way to invest and is suitable for medium- to long-term investors who want direct exposure and the benefits of real ownership (including voting rights, if applicable). Typical fees with South African brokers may include a fixed commission per order, generally ranging from R100 to R250, plus possible small custody or FX conversion fees if you’re buying US-listed shares.

Informations importantes

Example: If the Dollar Tree share price is $90.58 (about R1,700 at an exchange rate of 18.8 ZAR/USD), with $1,000 (approx. R18,800), you can purchase about 11 shares (1,000 ÷ 90.58 ≈ 11), factoring in a brokerage fee of about $5.
✔️ Gain scenario:
If the share price rises by 10%, your holding is now worth $1,100.
Result: That’s a +$100 gross gain, or +10% on your investment—before any costs or taxes.

Trading via CFD

CFD (Contract for Difference) trading on Dollar Tree shares allows you to speculate on price fluctuations without owning the underlying stock. CFDs are leveraged products—meaning you can open a larger position with less capital—but they come with risks and extra costs. Instead of paying a commission, you’ll often pay a spread (small markup on the buy/sell price) and overnight financing fees on leveraged positions.

Informations importantes

Example: Suppose you open a CFD position with $1,000 and 5x leverage, giving you market exposure of $5,000.
✔️ Gain scenario:
If Dollar Tree’s price rises by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%.
Result: That’s a $400 gain on your initial $1,000 margin (excluding spreads and overnight fees).

Final advice

Before investing, it’s important to compare the fees, trading conditions, currency conversion charges, and regulatory status of available brokers. Your choice between spot buying and CFDs should depend on your investment objectives, risk tolerance, and time horizon. For more details, see the broker comparison tool further down the page to find the most suitable partner for your needs.

Our 7 tips for buying Dollar Tree stock

The latest news about Dollar Tree

Dollar Tree’s stock has posted strong gains over the past week, with a +1.87% increase. This recent appreciation brings its share price to $90.58, further supported by a robust 27% rally in the previous six months, reflecting sustained investor confidence, especially as analysts see upward momentum based on a recalibrated business focus and favourable technical buy signals. For South African investors, the stock’s USD denomination and primary listing on NASDAQ align well with global portfolio diversification strategies, especially amid shifting local-ZAR exchange rates.

The company finalized the previously announced sale of its Family Dollar division, unlocking $1 billion for strategic reinvestment. This move is especially relevant in the context of emerging-market investment approaches popular among ZA asset managers, which often prioritize streamlined, profitable business models. The divestiture has enabled Dollar Tree to eliminate a significant financial burden and sharpen its focus on its higher-margin core brand, which may signal further operating efficiency and risk reduction often favoured by global investors.

Technical signals collectively indicate a strong buying opportunity, with all principal moving averages and the MACD showing positive trends. With the Relative Strength Index at a neutral 61.64 and Williams %R in buy territory, momentum remains favourable. For ZA-based analysts who frequently leverage technical analysis for U.S. exposure within multi-asset funds, this alignment of short- and long-term indicators highlights the stock’s resilience relative to global retail peers, especially in defensive consumer segments.

Dollar Tree’s strategic reorientation and operating focus underpin positive sales and earnings projections for 2025. The outlook includes targeted comparable sales growth of 3–5% and an anticipated rise in earnings per share to the $5.00–5.50 range. This growth orientation, set against a backdrop of persistent U.S. consumer “trade-down” behaviour due to inflation—a pattern mirrored among South African retail consumers—signals further upside potential and offers a case study for ZA investors in retail innovation and defensive positioning.

The upcoming Q1 2025 results, to be released on 4 June, are widely anticipated and may reinforce the recent positive momentum. Consensus forecasts project quarterly revenue of $4.52 billion and EPS in the $1.17–1.20 range. High engagement around such earnings events is common among professional investors in South Africa focused on global equities, as timely data releases often shape tactical allocation decisions within portfolios exposed to U.S. consumer retail themes.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.