Should I buy Mondi stock in 2025? Expert Guide for ZA

What is Mondi?

How much is the Mondi stock?

The price of Mondi stock is rising this week. As of now, the share trades at 1,207.5 GBX, up 1.43% over the last 24 hours and showing a strong 3.29% gain for the week. Mondi’s market capitalization stands at £5.32 billion, with active average trading volume over the past 3 months. The stock currently trades on a P/E ratio of 29.45, offering a healthy dividend yield of 5.01%, and has a low beta of 0.73, indicating below-average volatility. With steady performance and attractive dividends, Mondi continues to draw attention from investors in South Africa seeking both income and stability.

Our complete analysis on the Mondi stock

Having closely examined Mondi’s latest financial disclosures and its stock performance over the past three years, we have applied rigorous quantitative and qualitative methods—integrating financial metrics, technical patterns, market sentiment, and peer benchmarking enhanced by proprietary analytics. The data reveals a notable convergence of strategic, technical, and fundamental strengths that warrant renewed attention from discerning investors. So, why might Mondi stock once again become a strategic entry point into the global packaging and paper sector as 2025 approaches?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Mondi’s share price, currently at 1,207.5 GBX (+1.43% daily), has staged a resilient recovery, posting a robust +3.3% gain following the Q1 2025 results. This movement contrasts favorably against historical volatility and sector benchmarks. Notably, trading activity remains elevated, underscoring sustained interest from both institutional and retail participants.

Significantly, market sentiment around Mondi has been buoyed by a series of positive developments:

• Q1 2025 EBITDA rose to €290 million (up from €261 million in Q4), exceeding analyst expectations on the back of higher sales volumes, effective cost control, and fewer planned shutdowns.
• JPMorgan’s recent upgrade to “Overweight” and a target of £14.30 (+20% upside potential) reflects mounting optimism across the analyst community.
• The broader macro environment continues to favour high-quality players in sustainable packaging, with secular trends in e-commerce, sustainability mandates, and supply chain reliability benefitting market leaders like Mondi.

In South Africa especially, large-cap dual-listed stocks with high dividend credentials and strong ESG profiles (such as Mondi) remain in high demand—offering a potent combination of growth and income in a market attracted to global earnings and defensive sector characteristics.

Technical Analysis

A review of current momentum indicators reveals a constructive technical backdrop:

• RSI (14-day) stands at 57.7, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions—often synonymous with the early stages of an upward cycle.
• The MACD (12,26) at 16.7 issues a fresh “buy” signal as short-term momentum crosses above trend, historically a precursor to price acceleration.
• Key short- and medium-term moving averages (20-day at 1,179.3 GBX, 50-day at 1,156.8 GBX, and 100-day at 1,195.3 GBX) all point to ongoing buy signals, indicating robust underlying support.
• The 200-day moving average (1,252.7 GBX) currently acts as overhead resistance; however, a sustained move above this level would strongly validate the emergence of a new bullish phase.

Technically, the stock enjoys strong support at 1,156.8 GBX (50-day MA), while oscillators remain neutral, suggesting a healthy consolidation and positioning for further upward movement. With a moving average “strong buy” consensus (12 signals vs. only 2 sell indicators), Mondi’s chart structure supports a favourable near- to medium-term outlook.

Fundamental Analysis

On the fundamental front, Mondi continues to display a set of compelling attributes:

• Resilient Revenue Growth: Despite challenging macro conditions in 2024, full-year EBITDA reached €1,049 million, and Q1 2025 reported a notable revenue increase of 6.6% with solid volume growth.
• Attractive Valuation: Mondi currently trades at a forward P/E of 13.19 and a Price/Sales ratio of 0.86—well below many global packaging peers, indicating a potential valuation discount. The Price/Book of 1.3 further underscores room for capital rerating as visibility on earnings growth improves.
• Dividend Appeal: With a 5.01% current yield and a maintained annual dividend of 70.0 euro cents, Mondi continues to deliver consistent income for holders in an environment of variable rates and uncertain inflation.
• Strategic Investments: The €1.2 billion growth capex program, nearly complete, is poised to add €200 million to annual EBITDA by 2026, underlining the company’s commitment to long-term value creation and scale.

Structurally, Mondi is a recognized global leader in sustainable packaging and paper solutions, with integrated operations, strong brand equity, and a diversified international presence. Its innovation focus, particularly around circular economy and EcoSolutions, positions it for outperformance as ESG-driven procurement accelerates worldwide.

Volume and Liquidity

Elevated, sustained trading volumes point to pronounced market confidence in Mondi’s investment story. The stock’s substantial institutional backing and dual-listing structure (LSE and JSE) ensure deep liquidity for both domestic and offshore investors, enhancing its market profile and contributing to lower bid-ask spreads. A healthy float and robust demand dynamics foster a dynamic valuation environment, offering readiness for swift repricing around key news flow and catalysts.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Several powerful themes reinforce the positive outlook:

• Capex Completion: The imminent conclusion of Mondi’s transformation programme is expected to directly drive earnings inflection from 2026, with €200 million in additional annual EBITDA expected.
• Flexible Packaging Boom: Structural growth in flexible packaging, propelled by regulatory tailwinds and sustainability imperatives, is anticipated to catalyse further upswings in volume and margin.
• Product Innovation: Leading advancements in eco-friendly packaging solutions, including biodegradable and recyclable formats, open new customer verticals and reinforce pricing power.
• ESG Leadership: With rating agencies and global investors allocating ever more capital to responsible solutions, Mondi’s top-tier ESG credentials could drive premium valuations and greater index inclusion.
• Analyst consensus and upgrades: Most major brokers rate Mondi as a “Buy,” while JPMorgan’s recent price target upgrade signals further institutional endorsement.

Together, these catalysts signal an environment increasingly supportive of a valuation reset, with both earnings growth and positive sentiment priming the stock for further gains.

Investment Strategies

Different timeframes present differentiated opportunities for positioning:

• Short-term: Technical signals suggest that buying on retests of the 1,156.8 GBX support zone may provide tactical upside, capturing renewed momentum as the share approaches resistance at the 200-day MA (1,252.7 GBX).
• Medium-term: The anticipated completion of the capex program, coupled with ongoing order book improvement and earnings upgrades, place Mondi at a strategic inflection.
• Long-term: Investors seeking quality compounding and inflation-protected income may find Mondi’s sector resilience, strong market position, and focus on sustainable innovation especially attractive looking out to 2026 and beyond.

With the stock consolidating above key supports and ahead of major capex delivery, the current window appears conducive to building exposure—allowing participation in both cyclical recovery and secular growth.

Is it the Right Time to Buy Mondi?

Synthesizing technical, fundamental, and strategic perspectives, Mondi exhibits a suite of strengths set to attract renewed capital inflows:

• Technical signals and robust support levels establish a low-risk entry zone.
• Valuation metrics are compelling, especially relative to growth potential and dividend yield.
• The completion of structural investment and upcoming EBITDA uplift present clear earnings and sentiment catalysts.

While prudent investors should remain alert to moderate cyclical and credit risks, the overwhelmingly positive outlook—underpinned by earnings momentum, balance sheet strength, and a strategic edge in global sustainability—suggests that Mondi may be entering a new and sustained bullish phase in 2025. For portfolio constructors seeking a blend of income, global exposure, and sector leadership, Mondi stands out as a stock that merits serious consideration for optimistic allocations.

In this context, Mondi seems well-positioned to offer both timely tactical opportunities and compelling strategic value, as it advances into its next chapter of growth and innovation within the evolving global packaging landscape.

How to buy Mondi stock in ZA?

Buying Mondi stock online as a South African investor is straightforward and secure when you use a regulated broker—your funds and shares are protected by strict oversight and modern technology. There are two common ways to gain exposure to Mondi: you can buy shares outright (spot trading), or you can trade Contracts for Difference (CFDs), which track the share price but don’t involve ownership. Each method suits different investment goals and risk profiles. Below, you’ll find a detailed comparison of both approaches, helping you make an informed decision. For broker comparisons tailored to South Africans, see the list further down this page.

Cash buying

When you buy Mondi shares “on the spot,” you become a direct shareholder on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), eligible to receive dividends and benefit from price appreciation. This is called a cash or spot purchase. Typically, brokers in South Africa charge a fixed commission per order, often between R50 and R200, plus a small regulatory fee.

Important information

Example: Suppose the Mondi share price is R276 on the JSE. With a R19,500 investment (about $1,000), and accounting for a R90 brokerage fee, you could purchase approximately 70 Mondi shares.
Gain scenario: If the share price increases by 10% to R303.60, your holding would then be worth about R21,210.
Result: That’s a R1,950 gross gain (+10%)—you fully participate in both gains and dividends.

Trading via CFD

CFDs (Contracts for Difference) allow you to trade Mondi’s share price movements without owning the underlying shares. CFDs are offered by licensed brokers and let you use leverage—often up to 5:1—which can multiply your gains (and losses). With CFDs, you pay a spread (the difference between buy and sell prices) and sometimes overnight financing fees if you hold positions for more than a day.

Important information

Example: You invest R19,500 ($1,000) in a Mondi CFD with 5x leverage, giving you R97,500 ($5,000) market exposure.
Gain scenario: If Mondi shares rise by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%.
Result: Your gain on the original R19,500 would be R7,800 (about $400), before fees—showing how leveraged products can amplify both profits and risks.

Final advice

Before you invest, be sure to compare broker fees, account features, and the protections in place for South African investors. Choosing the right platform depends on your objectives—whether you prefer direct ownership and long-term growth with dividends, or want to actively trade for short-term gains using leverage. For a side-by-side overview of the top brokers available in South Africa, see our comprehensive comparator lower down this page. Remember: start small, keep learning, and invest with confidence.

Our 7 tips for buying Mondi stock

The latest news about Mondi

Mondi delivered a strong Q1 2025 performance with EBITDA of €290 million and 6.6% revenue growth. This latest trading update showed an improved operating environment, combining higher sales volumes, good cost control, and fewer planned maintenance shutdowns than the previous quarter. The market responded positively, with Mondi’s stock price climbing 3.29% after the results, signalling robust investor confidence, especially given the context of dual-listing on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange and strong relevance for South African investors who directly benefit from Mondi’s income stream and regional employment footprint.

The company is nearing completion of a €1.2 billion growth capex programme, targeting a €200 million annual EBITDA increase by 2026. This investment underpins Mondi’s strategic commitment to its leadership in the global sustainable packaging sector, a trend highly relevant to South Africa’s growing packaging demand and increased focus on environmentally responsible manufacturing. Notably, the expansion further strengthens local operations, positioning the company to better serve clients across the Southern African region and address rising regulatory and customer requirements for sustainable solutions.

Mondi’s consistent high dividend yield—currently 5.01%—offers particularly attractive value for JSE investors amid regional yield constraints. With an annual dividend maintained at 70.0 euro cents per share, and a 52-week yield range peaking at 8.5%, Mondi continues to be a key dividend payer for South African portfolios. As a JSE-listed constituent with significant institutional holdings in South Africa, this stable and rising dividend profile delivers strong income certainty at a time when local investors value defensive, cash-generative assets.

Technical indicators are positive, with strong buy signals on moving averages and a consensus "Buy" rating from leading analysts, including JPMorgan. Over the past week, technical analysis has shifted neutral with a buy bias, with the 20, 50, and 100-day moving averages all issuing buy signals. In addition, JPMorgan’s recent upgrade to “Overweight” and a target price of £14.30 imply a potential 20% upside. This is particularly constructive for Johannesburg-based traders, as positive London sentiment generally drives upward momentum for the stock on the JSE.

Mondi’s operational and capex efficiency, anchored by ongoing cost control and innovation, reinforce its strategic value in the South African context. The company continues to demonstrate operational discipline, with effective control of operating costs and a clear focus on high-return investment, notably in sustainable packaging technologies. Its strong order books, resilient margins, and fully integrated operating model are vital positives for South Africa, where Mondi is a long-standing market participant, employer, and source of industrial development, underpinning its status as a top-tier blue-chip holding for regional investors.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.