Should I buy Carnival stock in 2025?

What is Carnival?

How much is the Carnival stock?

The price of Carnival stock is rising this week. Currently trading at $23.16, the stock is up 0.70% in the past 24 hours and has posted a strong 5.08% gain over the last week. Carnival’s market capitalisation stands at $31.16 billion, with an average 3-month trading volume of 26.7 million shares. The P/E ratio is 14.85, while no dividend is presently offered and stock beta is high at 2.51, signalling strong volatility. Investors in South Africa should note that this momentum comes alongside higher risk, making Carnival an option for those seeking growth with an appetite for market swings.

Our complete analysis of the Carnival stock

Having carefully reviewed Carnival Corporation’s most recent financial results and examining its stock performance trajectory over the past three years, our team has leveraged a proprietary blend of quantitative analytics—merging technical signals, robust financial metrics, market sentiment, and peer benchmarking. This comprehensive, algorithm-driven approach provides insightful clarity on the evolving risk/reward profile faced by travel and leisure sector investors today. So, why might Carnival stock once again become a strategic entry point into the cyclicals and experiential travel sector as we look towards 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Carnival’s share price has delivered a resoundingly positive return, currently trading at $23.16 as of May 29, 2025. Over the last twelve months, the stock has appreciated by 52.17%, establishing itself as one of the most notable post-pandemic turnaround stories on the NYSE. While the price has dipped 8.93% over the past six months, the recent rally—up over 5% in just the last week—signals revived market interest, supported by major catalysts and record financial performance.

Recent events have further cemented Carnival’s bullish narrative:

• Q1 2025 financials beat analyst expectations, with revenue reaching a historic $5.8 billion and adjusted net profits of $174 million, driven by record passenger ticket sales.
• The company upgraded its full-year 2025 guidance by $185 million, now forecasting over 30% earnings growth versus 2024.
• In a sector enjoying a robust macroeconomic tailwind—buoyed by persistent pent-up demand, favourable consumer spending trends in North America and Europe, and the ongoing normalization of global travel—Carnival stands at the forefront with its formidable scale advantage and diversified brand portfolio.

The broader market context in 2025 rewards companies that combine operating leverage, brand strength, and innovation. With 14 million passengers served in 2024 and commanding the largest cruise fleet worldwide, Carnival is ideally positioned to capture the enduring shift towards experiential leisure and “revenge travel.”

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, Carnival’s chart structure and key indicators have underpinned its recent resilience and suggest the stock may be in the early stages of a new bullish cycle:

• Relative Strength Index (RSI): Recently ranging between 60 and 84, these elevated readings reflect the stock’s strong momentum and, while hinting at short-term overbought conditions, also testify to robust buying interest.
• MACD: At 0.95, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence oscillates near its signal line; some readings hint at short-term consolidation, but broader momentum remains upward given the underlying trend over the past twelve months.
• Key support: The $19.20 level has held tactically since the start of the year; buyers have consistently stepped in on any market-wide pullback, highlighting strong conviction.
• Resistance and breakout: Short-term resistance is being challenged at $23.70. A decisive break above this could open the path to test the $28.72 annual highs, reinforcing the case for buying on confirmed strength.

Pattern watchers will also note that Carnival is now trading above its significant long-term moving averages. This technical posture supports the notion that, following the recent consolidation phase, the stock may be primed for another leg up—offering attractive entry for investors prepared to position ahead of further positive catalysts.

Fundamental Analysis

Carnival’s robust post-pandemic recovery is now evident across all core financial metrics:

• Revenue Growth: Q1 2025 saw $5.8 billion in revenue—an all-time high and an increase of more than $400 million year-on-year.
• Profitability Surge: Net adjusted earnings of $174 million ($0.13/share) convincingly beat consensus estimates, while strong forward bookings signal persistent pricing power and robust demand.
• Attractive Valuation:
• P/E (Trailing): At 14.85, Carnival trades at a modest multiple versus its growth trajectory and sector peers.
• Price/Sales (1.27) and Price/Book (3.39) ratios both compare attractively, supporting a re-rating case as margins expand.
• Strategic Expansion: The company has initiated an ambitious capital program, with eight new ships scheduled for delivery through 2033—including multiple “Project Ace” mega-liners and the debut of new destinations such as Celebration Key and an upgraded Half Moon Cay.
• Structural Strengths:
• Unmatched brand/channel diversity across Carnival Cruise Lines, Princess, Holland America, Seabourn, AIDA, and more.
• Leading market share and operational scale: over 90 ships, 115,000 employees, and global reach.
• Innovation pipeline robustly supports long-term competitive advantages.

Carnival’s swift rebound—evidenced by both exceptional top-line growth and accelerated progress against its post-pandemic SEA Change 2026 plan (ROIC target of 12% already exceeded)—further highlights its financial flexibility and sector leadership. With volume, pricing, and yield metrics all trending upward and guidance for 2025 revised higher, fundamentals increasingly justify renewed investor interest at current levels.

Volume and Liquidity

Liquidity is a further pillar of strength supporting Carnival’s investment case:

• With a daily trading volume averaging 14.9–26.7 million shares and a public float of 1.08 billion shares, Carnival offers ample liquidity for both institutional and individual investors—a crucial consideration for strategies scaling in or out of positions.
• Market capitalization now exceeds $31.1 billion, reflecting the market’s confidence in the sustainability of Carnival’s recovery and earnings growth.
• Dynamic trading activity, as seen during recent price surges, creates further optionality for those seeking to capitalize on both short-term volatility and longer-term appreciation.

This level of sustained volume often reflects deeper investor conviction and enables efficient price discovery, supporting a robust, dynamic valuation environment.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

The bull case for Carnival in 2025 and beyond is amply reinforced by multiple, overlapping catalysts:

• Fleet Innovation: Eight new vessels scheduled between 2025 and 2033—including Project Ace flagships with more than 3,000 cabins each—set to drive revenue and profit expansion.
• New Destinations: Launch of Celebration Key in mid-2025 and expanded offerings at Half Moon Cay open new markets and reinforce Carnival’s capacity to innovate guest experiences.
• Demand Dynamics: Executives have highlighted “incredibly strong” demand, as reflected in forward bookings and record yields—suggesting sustained pricing power and cash flow strength.
• Financial Execution: Carnival has already achieved the financial benchmarks set for 2026, a year ahead of schedule—including its targeted 12% ROIC.
• ESG and Governance: Enhanced safety standards, improved environmental footprint with new ships, and transparent governance practices are earning recognition among institutional investors, improving the company’s appeal to ESG-focused portfolios.
• Sector Tailwinds: Global travel recovery remains robust, underpinned by high household savings and a secular shift toward experiences—particularly relevant in the South African market, where outbound travel demand and leisure consumption are rebounding in line with developed market trends.

Competitively, Carnival benefits from scale economics and brand affinity that are difficult to replicate, maintaining a favorable position relative to both legacy cruise lines and new entrants. The consensus analyst target price of $26–$27 (~15–20% upside from current levels) further underscores the positive sentiment.

Investment Strategies

Carnival’s current setup lends itself to a wide range of strategic approaches, and the present technical and fundamental configuration suggests several attractive options for entry:

Short-Term

• Buy on Pullbacks to Support: Technical buyers may look to accumulate on any retracement towards the $19–$20 region, where prior support has held. Strong volume at these levels typically signals institutional buying.
• Breakout Buying: A move and close above $23.70 resistance—especially on above-average volume—offers confirmation of renewed bullish momentum for short- to medium-term traders.

Medium-Term

• Positioning Ahead of Catalysts: Initiating a position ahead of imminent events (e.g., the launch of Celebration Key, new ship deliveries, or Q2 earnings) could enable investors to participate in pre- and post-catalyst price moves.
• Earnings Momentum: The consistent outperformance against quarterly estimates and raised guidance provide a sturdy foundation for medium-term gains.

Long-Term

• Core Holding for Growth: For those seeking longer exposure, Carnival’s fleet expansion, secular travel trends, and structural innovations support the rationale for a core holding. Attractive valuation levels relative to sector growth rates reinforce the long-term case.
• Diversification within Consumer Discretionary: Carnival offers uncorrelated exposure within the broader consumer cyclical space, enhancing portfolio diversification—especially pertinent for South African investors seeking dollar-based growth opportunities.

In all cases, Carnival’s accessible liquidity makes it well-suited both for tactical traders and investors with strategic horizons.

Is It the Right Time to Buy Carnival?

In summary, Carnival Corporation presents an exceptional blend of accelerating fundamentals, technical resilience, strong volume-led liquidity, and a powerful suite of catalysts—each supporting the view that the stock is potentially entering a new and sustainable bullish phase. Record revenues, margin expansion, and forward guidance well above pre-pandemic baselines demonstrate not only management’s execution prowess, but also the enduring relevance of the cruise sector in global travel.

With a dominant competitive position, expanding addressable market, and numerous innovation-led growth levers, the fundamental case for renewed interest is compelling. The stock’s technical structure now aligns with this outlook, offering a favorable risk/reward profile, particularly at or near current levels and with a medium-term target of $26–$30 in sight. For investors attuned to the long-term trajectory of global leisure, Carnival increasingly seems to represent an excellent opportunity amid a resurgent experiential sector.

As we move into the second half of 2025, Carnival offers a rare convergence of value, growth, and momentum—an ideal combination for investors seeking both resilience and upside in their portfolios. Now is a time when Carnival deserves serious consideration as a core holding for the next wave of travel sector dynamism.

How to buy Carnival stock in ZA?

Buying Carnival stock online is straightforward and secure for South African investors, provided you use a regulated broker. You can invest directly by buying real shares (spot buying) or use contracts for difference (CFDs) to trade on price movements with leverage. Each method has its advantages, whether you prefer long-term ownership or more flexible trading. Below, we detail both approaches so you can choose the method that best suits your goals. To help you make the right choice, a full broker comparison is provided further down the page.

Spot Buying

Cash purchase of Carnival stock means you become the real owner of shares, participating directly in the company’s future. With most South African brokers, you pay a fixed commission when buying US-listed shares; this is often around R100–R200 per transaction, plus possible smaller fees. 

Example

Suppose Carnival’s share price is $23.16 (approx. R435 as of current exchange rates). With a $1,000 stake (around R18,800), you can buy about 43 shares ($1,000 ÷ $23.16), factoring in, for example, a $5 (R94) brokerage fee.

✔️ Gain scenario

If the share price rises by 10% to $25.48, your 43 shares are now worth about $1,100.
Result: +$100 gross gain, which is a 10% return on your investment.

Trading via CFDs

CFD trading allows you to speculate on Carnival’s price without owning the underlying stock. CFDs offer the flexibility to go long or short and to use leverage—magnifying both potential gains and risks. Fees include the “spread” (the broker’s difference between buy and sell prices) and overnight financing costs if you keep positions open for more than a day.

Example

You open a CFD position on Carnival with R18,800 ($1,000) and use 5x leverage, giving you exposure to R94,000 ($5,000) worth of shares.

✔️ Gain scenario

If the share price rises by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%.
Result: +R7,520 (+$400) gain on your initial R18,800 bet (excluding fees).

Final Advice

Before investing, it’s essential to compare each broker’s fees, currency exchange rates, and platform features—these can significantly impact your long-term returns. Whether you prefer the long-term benefits of holding real shares or the flexibility and leverage of CFDs depends on your strategy and risk appetite. Take your time to review our broker comparison below and choose the solution that aligns with your investment objectives.

Our 7 tips for buying Carnival stock

The latest news about Carnival

The Carnival stock surged over 5% in the past week, fueled by record Q1 results and heightened full-year guidance. Carnival Corporation announced an all-time high Q1 turnover of $5.8 billion, an increase of $400 million year-on-year, alongside a notable adjusted net profit of $174 million—exceeding management’s own guidance by $173 million. Supported by robust passenger ticket revenues and outperforming consensus expectations, the company raised its full-year adjusted net profit outlook by $185 million, now expecting over 30% earnings growth compared to 2024. This robust fundamental momentum translated directly to the share price, which gained 5.08% over seven days and over 52% year-on-year, signaling investor confidence and improving sentiment—factors that directly benefit South African institutional and retail investors with U.S. equity exposure via offshore portfolios, ETFs, or ADRs on local trading platforms.

Carnival's forward outlook remains highly constructive, particularly as management achieved key financial milestones ahead of schedule and continues to benefit from extraordinary demand for cruise vacations. For the South African market, expanding global cruise travel is key, both due to the region’s outbound tourism dynamics and the company’s operational reach through its Princess, Cunard, and Holland America lines—all of which maintain a presence in South Africa as both cruise operators and international travel partners. The positive revision of the 2025 profit guidance, combined with Carnival's pipeline of eight new ships (including innovative “Project Ace” vessels) and record net yield growth, positions the company as an ongoing beneficiary of accelerated travel recovery and leisure demand—a trend reflected in the strong optimism among local travel agencies and cruise distributors, potentially boosting related service and employment sectors domestically.

Analyst sentiment has continued to improve, with consensus targets implying further upside and a strong buy recommendation prevailing in recent reports. Current consensus among global research providers pegs the fair value of CCL shares at $26.89 median, with a potential upside of 15–20% from today’s price ($23.16). Notably, out of 28 tracked analyst opinions, 17 are Buy, 10 Hold, and just 1 Sell, according to TipRanks. This robust external validation offers a favorable signal for South African asset managers and high-net-worth investors screening for dollar-denominated growth and recovery stories, especially considering the absence of comparable domestic cruise or travel conglomerates on the JSE and the persistent demand for international diversification from SA-based portfolios.

Carnival is intensifying its presence and operational capabilities in Africa, underscored by new destination launches and regional route expansions relevant for South African outbound tourism flows. Of high relevance to the South African cruise industry and outbound travelers, Carnival has announced significant developments such as the July launch of Celebration Key and expansion at Half Moon Cay, enhancing global route networks that frequently include Cape Town, Durban, and Port Elizabeth as core stops. Several Carnival brands have also resumed or increased seasonal deployment in South Africa across multiple itineraries, directly supporting local port activity, hospitality, and transport supply chains—a positive for regional economic linkages and associated tourism-driven revenue.

While Carnival’s high leverage and sector volatility are considerations, the company’s dominant market position, diversified brand portfolio, and strong cash-generating capacity continue to outweigh these concerns in the current environment. With 90+ ships and 14 million passengers in 2024, Carnival remains the clear leader in the global cruise market—a position reinforced by ongoing investment, innovation in ship design, and proven resilience following the pandemic. Its recovery trajectory and scale allow it to manage elevated debt levels more effectively than smaller players, and its beta of 2.51 is consistent with the discretionary travel sector's cyclical nature. For South African investors seeking exposure to global megatrends in leisure and travel, Carnival’s strong fundamentals and sector leadership present a constructive medium-term opportunity, provided portfolio allocations remain sensitive to currency risk and global equity volatility.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.