Should I buy MercadoLibre stock in 2025? South Africa’s Full Analysis

What is MercadoLibre?

How much is the MercadoLibre stock?

The price of MercadoLibre stock is slightly down this week. As of now, the stock trades at $2,545.49, reflecting a 24-hour change of -0.20%. While weekly change data is unavailable, the market capitalization stands at $129.05 billion with an average 3-month daily volume of 440,877 shares.

With its high growth profile and above-average volatility, MercadoLibre presents both opportunities and risks for South African investors seeking international diversification.

Our full analysis on the MercadoLibre stock

Having conducted a rigorous review of MercadoLibre’s most recent financial disclosures alongside a detailed multi-year stock performance assessment, we have applied proprietary quantitative models to triangulate financial indicators, technical momentum, evolving sector dynamics, and the competitive landscape. This holistic methodology uncovers actionable insights into why MercadoLibre (MELI) continues to command strong attention among investors globally and in emerging markets such as South Africa. So, why might MercadoLibre stock once again become a strategic entry point into the Latin American tech growth sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

MercadoLibre’s equity story over the past year exemplifies exceptional momentum and market conviction. The stock is currently trading at $2,545.49 (as of 30 May 2025), placing it near the upper bound of its 52-week range ($1,550.00–$2,635.88) and representing a YTD gain of +49.7% and a robust +48.87% over the past 12 months. Over the last six months alone, MELI has delivered +28.23%, outperforming most global tech indices and cementing its place as a high-beta, high-impact growth play (Beta 1.61).

Notable positive developments supporting this rally include a Q1 2025 earnings beat, with EPS of $9.74—almost 18% above analyst consensus—driven by accelerating e-commerce and fintech revenues. The market also welcomed a planned leadership transition that underscores stability and continuity as Marcos Galperin prepares to move into an Executive Chairman role, with Ariel Szarfsztejn set to assume the CEO position.

On a macro level, MercadoLibre’s core markets are experiencing rapid digital transformation and rising internet penetration, supporting sustained expansion in online retail and financial services. Latin America’s fintech adoption curve, in particular, is steepening—a critical tailwind for MELI’s payments arm, Mercado Pago. Given South Africa’s own burgeoning e-commerce sector, the parallel growth story is both clear and highly relevant for local investors seeking geographic and sectoral diversification.

Technical Analysis

• Relative Strength Index (RSI 14-day): Currently at 65, the RSI is approaching—but not exceeding—overbought territory, suggesting continued upside with manageable risk of short-term retracement.
• MACD (12,26,9): At 108.76, the MACD sends a definitive buy signal, confirming upward momentum.
• Moving Averages: The stock is trading well above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages ($2,461.90, $2,213.94, $2,090.67, and $2,034.14 respectively), each acting as an ascending support level—a classic hallmark of a persistent uptrend.
• Key Technical Levels: Immediate support rests at $2,483.86, while resistance is capped at $2,595.68 (Fibonacci) and $2,631.33 (classic). Sustained closes above these resistance levels would likely trigger additional buying interest and algorithmic trading support.
• Consensus and Oscillator Signals: The Williams %R at -33.34 and a “Buy” consensus from leading technical aggregators highlight robust near-term momentum.

In summary, the technical landscape suggests that MercadoLibre is not only entrenched in a bullish structure, but is also well positioned for additional breakouts, especially should it push above current resistance bands.

Fundamental Analysis

MercadoLibre’s fundamentals remain exemplary amid its rapid expansion phase. The Q1 2025 revenue print hit $5.9 billion, up sharply from prior periods, and annual 2024 revenues surged 37.53% year-on-year to $20.78 billion. Even more striking, net earnings nearly doubled (+93.62%), reaching $1.91 billion for the year.

On a valuation basis, while the trailing P/E of 62.90 and forward P/E of 47.39 encode a premium, these metrics are increasingly justified by sector-leading growth rates, strong profitability, and evidence of operating leverage. The price/sales ratio of 5.78 and price/book of 25.84 place MELI among tech innovators, but its ability to repeatedly outpace consensus estimates signals that premium pricing reflects extraordinary execution and future potential, not irrational exuberance.

• Market Leadership: MercadoLibre controls the largest e-commerce and fintech ecosystem in Latin America, with over 218 million active users and a million sellers across 18 countries, enabling strong network effects and customer stickiness.
• Ecosystem Integration: From marketplace (Mercado Libre) to payments (Mercado Pago), logistics (Mercado Envios), and credit (Mercado Credito), MELI’s platforms reinforce each other, deepening user engagement and cross-selling opportunities.
• AI and Tech Innovation: Sustained investment in in-house AI and data infrastructure keeps the company at the innovation frontier, accelerating margin expansion and supporting new verticals.

Volume and Liquidity

Liquidity metrics reinforce market confidence and operational flexibility:

• Trading Volume: The average daily turnover is 440,877 shares, with periodic volume surges reflecting institutional interest and broad market participation.
• Stable Float: With 50.7 million shares outstanding and a significant free float listed on NASDAQ, MELI’s pricing is highly responsive to global capital flows while avoiding the pitfalls of illiquidity.
• Market Capitalization: At $129.05 billion, MercadoLibre is one of the most valuable technology companies outside the US and China, further reinforcing its ability to attract and retain large pools of capital.

Collectively, these volume and liquidity factors are optimal for investors seeking both short-term trading agility and long-term capital deployment at scale.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

MercadoLibre’s medium-term outlook is powered by a series of visible and credible growth drivers:

• Product and Geographic Expansion: Ongoing reinvestment—including a 48% year-on-year jump to $5.8 billion in strategic investments in Brazil—supports deepening penetration and market share across Mexico, Argentina, and beyond.
• Fintech Penetration: Mercado Pago’s market share in digital payments remains on an impressive upward trajectory, benefiting from unbanked populations and digital adoption tailwinds across the continent.
• Leadership Transition: The impending handover to Ariel Szarfsztejn has been well received, allaying concerns of strategic drift and underscoring MELI’s reputation for forward-thinking governance.
• ESG and Sustainability: The company has made significant strides in logistics sustainability, driving efficiency in Mercado Envios and actively touting an improved carbon footprint—a key consideration for a growing cohort of ESG-focused investors.
• Analyst Sentiment: Consensus is firmly bullish, with a median 12-month price target of $2,593.85 and some top-tier institutions projecting potential highs above $3,100.

Structural trends—urbanization, rising digital literacy, and regulatory liberalization—create a consistent backdrop for MELI to compound growth. A bullish setup is supported by both company-specific execution and broader sectoral tailwinds.

Investment Strategies

Given MercadoLibre’s technical alignment and strong fundamental setup, the following strategies merit serious consideration:

• Short-Term Entry: For investors seeking tactical exposure, pullbacks to strong support ($2,463.60–$2,483.86) or breakouts above immediate resistance ($2,595.68–$2,631.33) present attractive entry points. Momentum indicators suggest that dips are likely to be short-lived.
• Medium-Term Positioning: With medium-term catalysts such as accelerating fintech growth, managed leadership transition, and new product rollouts, taking advantage of any market volatility over the next 3–9 months may enable investors to capture multiple legs of upside.
• Long-Term Growth Allocation: MELI’s core strengths—its entrenched network, innovative ecosystem, and pan-regional leadership—support a thesis of continued outperformance. Investors targeting multi-year compound growth should view any periods of macro-driven weakness as compelling opportunities to build positions in line with valuation discipline.

Critically, MercadoLibre’s trading patterns and liquidity profile allow for dynamic scaling of position sizes without excessive slippage or market impact.

Is it the Right Time to Buy MercadoLibre?

MercadoLibre’s latest results and sustained operational excellence highlight a business in full stride—marked by rare alignment between technical, fundamental, and strategic vectors. Key strengths include outsized earnings momentum, a dominant position in high-growth markets, an integrated digital ecosystem, and robust financial agility. Despite higher-than-average valuation multiples, the underlying growth, cash flow generation, and operational leverage more than validate a renewed focus from serious investors.

In summary, MercadoLibre seems to represent an excellent opportunity at the intersection of Latin American digital growth and global technology investing. For those seeking exposure to a proven leader with ample runway, the current juncture may indeed be viewed as a strategic entry point—poised for durable upside as 2025 unfolds. Investors looking to harness emerging market dynamism and the evolution of the tech sector would do well to keep a keen focus on MercadoLibre throughout the year.

How to buy MercadoLibre stock in South Africa?

Buying MercadoLibre shares online is straightforward and secure for South African investors, provided you use a regulated broker. You can choose two main ways: buying the shares outright (also called spot or cash buying), or trading on price changes through CFDs (Contracts for Difference). Both options offer flexibility, with spot buying giving you direct ownership and CFDs allowing you to trade with leverage and short-term strategies. Below, we explain how each method works, including practical examples and typical costs—plus, you’ll find a comprehensive broker comparison further down the page to help you make the best choice.

Spot Buying

A cash or spot purchase means you buy MercadoLibre (MELI) shares directly on an international stock market (typically the NASDAQ, quoted in USD), often via a local JSE-authorised broker with access to global markets. With this method, you become a shareholder and can hold the stock for as long as you wish. Typical fees include a fixed brokerage commission per order—usually around R100 to R250, or $5–$15 if charged in dollars.

Important information

Example: If MercadoLibre's current share price is $2,545.49 (about R47,800), a $1,000 investment (roughly R18,800 at exchange rates) allows you to buy about 0.39 shares* after factoring in a $5 fee.
✔️ Gain scenario:
If the share price rises by 10%, your holdings are worth $1,100 (R20,680).
Result: that’s a $100 gross gain, or +10% on your initial $1,000.

*Fractional shares are usually offered by international brokers and many South African platforms with global access.*

Trading via CFD

CFD trading lets you speculate on MercadoLibre’s share price movements without owning the actual shares. With CFDs, you can use leverage, meaning you only need a fraction of the total position as margin. Common costs for CFDs include the spread (the difference between buy/sell prices) and an overnight financing fee for positions held longer than a day.

Important information

Example: You open a CFD position on MercadoLibre with $1,000 (about R18,800) and use 5x leverage, giving you exposure to $5,000 worth of shares.
✔️ Gain scenario:
If MercadoLibre’s price climbs by 8%, your position grows by 8% × 5 = 40%.
Result: You make a $400 gain (about R7,500) on your $1,000 margin (excluding fees).

Final Advice

Always compare brokers’ fees, trading platforms, and access to overseas stocks or CFDs before investing. Some brokers offer lower commissions or fractional investing, while others have advanced CFD functionality. The right choice depends on whether you seek long-term ownership or prefer flexible, leveraged trading.
For a full breakdown of top brokers available in South Africa for both spot buying and CFD trading, see our comparative table further down the page—so you can confidently choose the best platform for your investment needs.

Our 7 tips for buying MercadoLibre stock

The latest news about MercadoLibre

MercadoLibre reported robust Q1 2025 financial results, exceeding analyst expectations for both revenue and earnings. For the first quarter of 2025, MercadoLibre achieved $5.9 billion in revenue and net income of $494 million, with earnings per share reaching $9.74—an impressive 17.78% above consensus estimates of $8.27. This strong operational performance reflects sustained growth in its e-commerce and fintech divisions, strengthening investor confidence and supporting its share price momentum. The company's superior financial delivery is viewed positively by global markets, including investors in South Africa, who tend to favour companies with consistent top-line growth and proven resilience in emerging markets.

Technical analysis signals a clear "buy", with multiple indicators in alignment and persistent upward price momentum. The most recent technical consensus (as of May 30, 2025) for MercadoLibre is bullish, driven by every major moving average (20, 50, 100, and 200-day) and the Williams %R indicator showing buy signals. The MACD also remains positive, and the RSI sits near neutral at 65, indicating the current price is not yet overbought. This evidence of technical strength is especially relevant for traders and portfolio managers in South Africa, seeking exposure to global growth stocks with strong technical foundations and liquidity on large US exchanges.

Market sentiment and analyst outlook remain highly optimistic, with consensus ratings affirming a strong buy and further upside potential. Recent analyst consensus places MercadoLibre as a strong buy, featuring a median price target of $2,593.85, approximately 1.9% above current levels, and upside projections as high as $3,100 in the coming year. Analysts highlight MercadoLibre’s market leadership, innovation in fintech (Mercado Pago), and continued investment in technology as primary sources of competitive advantage. For South African analysts and investors, this sustained optimism—backed by expert opinion—suggests that MercadoLibre retains momentum as an attractive candidate in global equity strategies, with limited adverse news affecting the stock this quarter.

MercadoLibre’s continued expansion strategy, particularly its significant reinvestment in Brazil’s e-commerce and payments ecosystem, fuels future growth prospects. The firm has increased its investment in Brazil by 48% for 2025, reaching a record $5.8 billion, a clear signal of its intent to further entrench its dominant position. This aggressive capital layout underlines confidence in Latin America’s consumer digitalization and underbanked financial sectors—regions with demographic and economic parallels to South Africa. For local investors and strategists, the scale and ambition of MercadoLibre’s expansion offer a case study in sustainable platform growth within emerging economies, offering indirect benchmarks for domestic companies.

A managed leadership transition is expected to maintain strategic continuity and reassure international shareholders, including those in ZA. The announcement of CEO Marcos Galperin’s transition to Executive Chairman on January 1, 2026, with Ariel Szarfsztejn stepping in as CEO, comes after 26 years of stable leadership. This change has been received as orderly and well-supervised by global markets, providing assurance that the company’s core vision and innovative drive will persist. Leadership clarity is a key consideration for South African institutional investors with exposure to offshore growth equities, as it reduces governance risk and protects long-term shareholder value.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.