Should I buy McDonald's stock in 2025? Full South African Analysis

What is McDonald's?

How much is the McDonald's stock?

The price of McDonald's stock is falling this week. Currently, MCD is trading at $311.86, reflecting a daily decrease of $0.98 (-0.31%) and a 0.78% drop over the last seven days.

A beta of 0.57 indicates lower-than-average market volatility. For ZA investors seeking stability and regular income, McDonald's remains an attractive option even amid short-term price pressure.

Our full analysis of the McDonald's stock

After a thorough review of McDonald's Corporation's latest financial results and an in-depth evaluation of its stock performance over the past three years, our proprietary multi-factor algorithm has synthesized inputs from financial ratios, technical indicators, market developments, and competitor benchmarking. This systematic approach reveals compelling insights into the company’s current trajectory and market standing. So, why might McDonald’s emerge once again as a strategic entry point into the global consumer and quick-service restaurant sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Over the past year, McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) has demonstrated remarkable resilience and a robust recovery, with the share price appreciating by +25.06%—notably outperforming the broader S&P 500 and many peers in the quick-service restaurant space. The current price of $311.86 (as of 30 May 2025) places it comfortably within its 52-week range ($243.53–$326.32), reflecting consistent market confidence.

While Q1 2025 headline revenue ($5.96 billion) showed a 3.5% decline versus Q1 2024, and net income slightly dipped by 3.2%, the underlying performance remains strong with a healthy adjusted EPS beating expectations ($2.67 actual vs $2.64 consensus) and an impressive 31% net margin. Analysts and investors have largely interpreted recent short-term softness—tied to macroeconomic headwinds affecting lower-income consumers—as transitory rather than structural.

The extension of McDonald’s value-driven menu, continued investment in employee recruitment (375,000 new hires announced), and prudent closure of underperforming initiatives like CosMc’s, have all been positively received. These actions reaffirm McDonald’s operational discipline and agility despite macro variables that have recently affected US comparable sales (-3.6%, the first such decline since 2020). Importantly, management’s forward-looking strategy positions the company well as household consumption is expected to rebound.

In the broader sector context, McDonald’s continues to benefit from several macroeconomic tailwinds: moderating food input inflation, increasing global urbanisation, a resilient middle class in emerging markets, and the secular shift to convenience and digital ordering. For South African investors seeking dollar exposure to proven global consumer giants, McDonald’s stock stands out on multiple fronts.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, McDonald's presents a solid setup suggestive of further upside. Current oscillators are neutral to positive, with a 14-day RSI of 50.63 (comfortably away from overbought territory, signifying ample room for an upward move). The MACD is positive at 1.19, indicating a potential bullish momentum build.

Importantly, the stock has convincingly broken a key resistance level at $308—now acting as a firm area of technical support. The next significant resistance is at the $317.06 short-term moving average, followed by the 52-week high at $326.32. The recent breach above $308, supported by 14 bullish technical signals, suggests the stock may be entering a new medium-term upward phase. Short-term and medium-term momentum both favour a hold-to-buy approach, with little immediate risk of a significant correction given the disciplined trading channel.

Fundamental Analysis

On fundamentals, McDonald’s outshines much of the sector. Despite the Q1 revenue dip, trailing twelve-month (TTM) revenue remains robust at $25.71 billion, with an exceptional EBITDA margin of 54% and a gross margin of 56.8%. The company generated free cash flow of $5.31 billion over the past year, supporting steady capital returns to shareholders.

Its P/E ratio (trailing) sits at 27.55, with a forward P/E of 25.45, which is a premium to the sector—but justifiably so, due to superior margins, diversified global operations, and industry-leading brand equity. The dividend yield remains attractive at 2.27%, backed by ongoing cash flow resilience.

Strategically, McDonald’s continues to focus on operational efficiency (with over 95% of US outlets franchised), benefiting from recurring royalty streams and minimal capital intensity. The company’s fast but measured expansion in high-growth international markets, successful adaptation to digital and delivery platforms, and a relentless focus on menu innovation all reinforce its structural strengths. With over 70 years of history, McDonald’s brand recognition, pricing power, and adaptability to economic cycles are simply unparalleled within the sector.

Volume and Liquidity

Trading volumes have sustained robust levels, with a 3-month average daily volume of 3.68 million shares and an institutional float of 714.77 million shares. This underscores significant market confidence and assures high liquidity for investors—a crucial factor, particularly for participants in the South African market seeking dollar diversification with ease of entry and exit.

Furthermore, recent increases in institutional ownership, including allocations by major global pension funds, signal renewed conviction by sophisticated market players in McDonald’s medium and long-term growth prospects.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Looking forward, several growth catalysts underpin the bullish case:

• Digital Innovation and Menu Expansion: McDonald’s continues to invest heavily in digitalisation, personalised offers via its app, and accelerated drive-thru and delivery services. Recent menu innovations and the extended $5 value meal respond directly to evolving consumer preferences for affordability and convenience.
• International Growth: The strategic push into under-penetrated emerging markets, especially in Asia and Africa, presents significant new revenue opportunities.
• Operational Optimisation: Streamlined cost structures and supply chain efficiencies are likely to drive incremental margin expansion as sales volumes normalise and input cost inflation abates.
• Resilient Core Business: Franchise model limits balance sheet risk while maximising scalability, and the 2025 recruitment plan positions the chain for growth as labour markets stabilise.
• ESG Commitments: McDonald’s is strengthening initiatives around sustainability, responsible sourcing, and community engagement, which resonate well with a new generation of consumers and institutional investors, further broadening its long-term investor base.

Analyst consensus points to a 6.2% average price target lag, with many targeting $332–$334 over the next 12 months. More aggressive models see 30% upside potential, suggesting a fair value in the $405 range should catalysts play out favourably.

Investment Strategies

There are coherent arguments to support positioning in McDonald’s stock across multiple time horizons:

• Short-Term: The recent technical breakout above $308 and the neutral RSI present favourable risk-reward for traders aiming to capitalise on momentum towards the $317–$326 range, with tight stop-loss parameters below key support levels.
• Medium-Term: As household consumption stabilises and new digital initiatives begin to scale, the stock appears ideally positioned for continued growth through H2 2025, particularly if upcoming quarterly results reaffirm improving revenues and margins.
• Long-Term: For buy-and-hold investors, McDonald’s remains a textbook example of a defensive compounder: a rare blend of capital appreciation, regular dividend income, inflation protection, and exposure to secular global consumer trends. The franchise model and global diversification deliver resilience against economic shocks, while innovation and operational excellence sustain long-term value.

For South African investors, McDonald’s also offers an efficient means to diversify portfolios internationally, gain dollar exposure, and access the world’s most recognisable consumer brand—all while benefitting from strong liquidity and robust governance structures.

Is It the Right Time to Buy McDonald’s?

In sum, McDonald’s currently combines firm technical foundations with undeniable long-term structural advantages. Despite short-term economic headwinds, the company’s cash-generative, brand-led, and innovation-fuelled model remains unrivalled, while recent technical signals imply the stock may soon re-enter an upward trajectory. Multiple upcoming catalysts, from digital gains to global expansion, justify renewed optimism and potential portfolio repositioning.

Given a sound valuation, improving market context, and proven management execution, McDonald’s stock seems to represent an excellent opportunity for investors seeking reliable growth, defensiveness, and global consumer exposure as 2025 unfolds. For those with a strategic outlook, the timing may be particularly favourable—positioning ahead of further momentum and new market catalysts. This is a moment where the strength of fundamentals and the alignment of technical signals merit serious consideration, making McDonald’s a standout candidate in the global blue-chip landscape.

Ultimately, McDonald’s is not just a leader in quick-service dining, but a cornerstone stock for resilient, long-term growth—reinforced by a robust dividend, compelling innovation, and breadth of global operations. For investors seeking a blend of stability, upside potential, and international diversification, the opportunity presented by McDonald’s at its current juncture is one deserving of attention and ongoing conviction.

How to buy McDonald's stock in South Africa?

Buying shares of McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) online is a quick, secure, and fully regulated process thanks to leading brokers now accessible in South Africa. Investors generally have two options: buying shares outright (spot buying), which means owning the asset, or trading Contracts for Difference (CFDs), which allows speculation on price movements without owning the underlying shares. These methods suit different needs, from long-term wealth building to short-term trading. To help you get started, a broker comparison tool is available further down the page.

Spot Buying

When you buy McDonald's shares for cash via a regulated broker, you acquire real ownership in the company. Your shares are securely held in your name, and you may receive dividends. Brokers typically charge a fixed commission per order, which, for South Africans, can range from ZAR 70 to ZAR 150, or around $5–$8 USD, depending on the platform.

Example

• McDonald’s share price: $311.86
• You invest $1,000
• Brokerage fee: ~$5
• Number of shares: About 3.19 shares ($1,000 ÷ $311.86 ≈ 3.2)
• If the share price rises by 10%, your shares are now worth $1,100
• Result: +$100 gross gain, representing a +10% return on your investment

Trading via CFD

CFD trading lets you speculate on McDonald’s share price movements without owning the underlying stock. With CFDs, you can use leverage (borrowing) to increase your market exposure. Fees consist mainly of the spread (the difference between the buy and sell price) and overnight financing costs if you hold positions beyond one day.

Example

• You commit $1,000 and use 5x leverage
• Your market exposure: $5,000
• If McDonald’s shares rise by 8%, your CFD gains 8% × 5 = 40%
• Result: +$400 profit on your $1,000 margin (excluding fees)

Final Advice

Always compare brokers’ fees, trading platforms, and conditions—such as minimum deposit, currency conversion charges, and available trading tools—before making an investment. Whether you choose spot buying for long-term growth or CFD trading for flexible strategies, your choice should match your financial goals and risk tolerance. For help selecting the right broker, refer to the comprehensive comparison tool found further down this page.

Our 7 tips for buying McDonald's stock

The latest news about McDonald's

McDonald's stock has demonstrated resilience with a 5.35% gain over six months and 25.06% over one year. This robust outperformance versus broad market indices underscores the company's defensive nature within consumer cyclicals, supported by its global franchise model and strong brand presence. For South African investors seeking reliable US blue chips, McDonald's positive annual returns and a dividend yield of 2.27% offer an attractive combination of growth and income, providing geographic diversification in portfolios focused on companies with enduring, stable performance across economic cycles.

The company recently extended its $5 value meal menu, signaling an adaptive strategy amid economic headwinds. By prolonging this value offering, McDonald's is addressing consumer sensitivity to price, especially among low-income segments experiencing budget pressures. This move not only helps stabilize customer traffic but also reinforces McDonald's global brand positioning as an accessible, value-driven choice. For the South African market, where disposable income can be equally pressured by economic fluctuations, such pricing agility sets a benchmark for local quick-service restaurant chains and highlights McDonald's capacity to drive volume even in challenging environments.

Analyst sentiment remains neutral to slightly optimistic, with consensus price targets suggesting a potential 6% upside. Despite recent short-term pressures on revenue, the company's robust fundamentals encourage analysts to maintain "Buy" recommendations, with the average target near $334.74. The resilience in forward projections and continued institutional accumulation – particularly by major pension funds – indicate underlying confidence in McDonald's operational model. South African investors often monitor international analyst sentiment as part of their due diligence, and these signals suggest that McDonald's is seen as a relative safe haven in global equities.

Technical indicators show positive momentum with the stock breaking a key resistance at $308 and MACD in bullish territory. The recent breach of this technical barrier points to the possibility of continued short-term gains, supported by 14 bullish technical signals and a neutral RSI at 50.63. For market participants in South Africa with an appetite for tactical entries into major US stocks via local or offshore brokerage platforms, these technical developments provide actionable insights for timing investments or hedging existing positions.

McDonald's is actively expanding in emerging markets and investing in digital innovation, reinforcing its long-term growth story. Ongoing digitalisation initiatives, international market penetration, and the recent announcement of a major recruitment plan (375,000 hires) point to management's strategic focus on growth and operational scalability. These factors are highly relevant for mutual funds and institutional investors in South Africa targeting global leaders with proven capacity for expansion and adaptability – especially in markets that mirror local sector growth dynamics and offer robust case studies for best operational practices.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.