Should I buy NEPI Rockcastle stock in 2025?

What is NEPI Rockcastle?

How much is the NEPI Rockcastle stock?

The price of NEPI Rockcastle stock is trending slightly down this week. As of today, the current share price on the JSE stands at 13,612 ZAC, reflecting a 24-hour change of -0.26%. Over the past week, the stock shows a mild negative trend, contributing to a six-month performance of -7.21%.

NEPI Rockcastle’s market capitalisation is €4.85 billion, with an average daily volume of 9,309 shares over the past three months. The stock has a P/E ratio of 7.75, offers an attractive 7.96% dividend yield, and maintains a 0.79 beta, indicating lower volatility than the broader market.

This profile suggests NEPI Rockcastle could appeal to South African investors seeking stable income with moderate risk exposure.

Our full analysis of the NEPI Rockcastle stock

Having thoroughly examined NEPI Rockcastle’s (NRP) latest financial results and assessed its stock performance over the past three years, we deployed our advanced analytical algorithms—cross-referencing fundamental indicators, technical signals, trading data, and sector peer benchmarks—to provide a multidimensional view of the company’s prospects. This synthesis reveals not only robust underlying fundamentals and consistent dividend strength, but also emerging technical and macroeconomic catalysts that warrant close attention. So, why might NEPI Rockcastle stock once again become a strategic entry point into the European listed real estate sector for 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

NEPI Rockcastle has demonstrated striking resilience amid a challenging landscape for global and regional REITs. As of 30 May 2025, the share price stood at 13,612 ZAC on the JSE (6.82 EUR on Euronext Amsterdam), reflecting a modest 1-year total price performance of +3.33% despite adverse sector sentiment and a subdued 6-month correction of -7.21%. Notably, this compares favourably with broader indices for European commercial property, many of which experienced deeper declines given macro headwinds.

Several positive events have supported this resilience. First and foremost, the company’s Q1 2025 net operating income (NOI) advanced by an impressive 12.6% year-on-year—materially outpacing both initial guidance and consensus. Two major Polish acquisitions in 2024 consolidated NEPI Rockcastle’s market leadership in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), while a €650 million development and redevelopment pipeline continues to fuel future growth.

The backdrop for CEE retail property is also turning more favourable. With inflationary pressures in the region receding and consumer sentiment improving, footfall and tenant demand at high-quality shopping centres are recovering. The company’s imminent dividend (7.96% forward yield) is particularly attractive, in a world where stable euro-based cash flows are prized by income-seeking investors.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, NEPI Rockcastle sits at a compelling juncture that hints at renewed upside potential. The current Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 44 indicates the shares are neither overbought nor oversold, suggesting scope for a momentum reversal with limited downside risk at current levels. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) at -28 signals a technical pause, yet this is counterbalanced by the 50-day moving average (13,604 ZAC) recently acting as support—a classic bullish divergence against the prevailing negative signals from the 20-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages.

Crucially, the stock is testing major support around 13,578 ZAC on the JSE, historically a strong pivot level. The key resistance at 15,035 ZAC provides a measurable upside target should wealth inflows or improving sector sentiment materialise. While the current technical rating is “neutral with a downward trend,” the confluence of support, stabilising indicators, and a pattern of outperformance in weak periods often act as the precursor to a new bullish phase—especially when coupled with clear positive catalysts.

Fundamental Analysis

NEPI Rockcastle’s fundamentals are particularly compelling among listed property peers. Revenues for the trailing twelve months (TTM) reached €853.4 million, supported by solid operational leverage: the company generated €587.6 million in net profit and an EBITDA of €361.7 million (for six months of 2024), underlining both scale and margin strength.

The positive trend in operational performance is especially clear in the Q1 2025 results: double-digit NOI growth and strong rent collections defy sector-wide headwinds. Value creation is being driven by strategic expansion—particularly in Poland, now representing 30% of the portfolio—and active portfolio management across 56 properties in eight CEE countries.

From a valuation perspective, the stock’s price/earnings ratio stands at a strikingly low 7.75, well below the historical averages for the listed European property sector and suggesting a margin of safety for investors. The forward dividend yield of 7.96%—paid semi-annually—reinforces the case for stable long-term returns. Notably, the analyst consensus target of 7.12 EUR (with some models suggesting upside to 8.87 EUR, a 30% premium) points to broad recognition of NEPI Rockcastle’s undemanding valuation and growth potential.

• Market leadership as the largest CEE retail property operator
• A premium portfolio diversified across eight growth markets
• Deep operational expertise, with an integrated management team
• A history of adaptive innovation, from digitalisation initiatives to tailored tenant mix strategies

Volume and Liquidity

Sustained trading volumes, averaging around 9,309 shares daily (across the principal listings), evidence a stable, liquid market for NEPI Rockcastle’s equity. This liquidity fosters robust price discovery and underpins the company’s ability to attract institutional flows—often a prerequisite for breakout performance during sector reratings.

The free float structure is conducive to dynamic valuation shifts, as investor positioning evolves in line with changing market expectations. As regional sentiment swings back in favour of quality, defensive property exposures, well-traded shares like NEPI Rockcastle may respond with outsized moves relative to less liquid peers.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

• Completion and absorption of the €650m+ development pipeline through 2025–2026, with expected positive impacts on both income and market value
• Ongoing acquisitions, particularly in Poland and other fast-growing CEE markets, strengthen scale and bargaining power across the region
• Proactive adaptation to the new era of omnichannel retail—digitisation and experiential enhancements to NEPI Rockcastle malls make these assets more resilient to e-commerce threats than more commoditised competitors
• Risk-mitigating diversification across eight economies, balancing exposure to CEE growth with regional stability
• Increasing ESG commitment—a theme favoured by global asset allocators—should further support access to lower-cost capital and futureproof the portfolio

Importantly, industry trends continue to improve: regulatory clarity, stable Eurozone rates, and a rebound in CEE domestic demand all create a macro climate in which quality retail REITs, particularly those paying substantial dividends, appear increasingly attractive.

Investment Strategies

• Short-term: The stock currently sits just above its principal pivot support, with the potential for a technical rebound as trading volumes consolidate and the RSI recovers towards neutral. Coupled with the imminent dividend (ex-date: 18 September 2025), this creates a window for tactical positioning and possible yield capture.
• Medium-term: As the €650m development pipeline is delivered through late 2025 and into 2026, additional rental income and capital gains could begin to be recognised in earnings releases, supporting a rerating towards analyst targets.
• Long-term: The compelling combination of an attractive entry valuation, market leadership, superior dividend profile, and ongoing structural expansion offers long-term investors exposure to both income and capital appreciation in high-growth Central and Eastern European real estate.

Ideal portfolio positioning takes advantage of the current technical low, with further accumulation possible ahead of company-specific catalysts (such as the next tenant rollout or strategic acquisition announcement). Given the relatively low beta (0.79), NEPI Rockcastle may also serve as a portfolio stabiliser in diversified South African and international allocations.

Is it the Right Time to Buy NEPI Rockcastle?

In summary, NEPI Rockcastle stands out as a robust play on the recovery and secular growth of Central and Eastern European commercial property. The firm delivers a rare blend of consistently rising operational income, prudent management, superior yield, and undemanding valuation metrics. Its ironclad market leadership and expanding portfolio offer a clear roadmap for earnings and dividend growth, while technical and liquidity conditions both support the argument for renewed upside.

Given the convergence of these factors—resilient fundamentals, steady expansion into dynamic CEE markets, a near-8% yield, and signs of technical and macro reacceleration—the stock seems to represent an excellent opportunity for discerning investors. Current pricing does not fully reflect the company’s growth prospects nor its strong competitive position, supporting optimism for significant performance in the 12–24 months ahead.

With the next dividend and major development milestones on the near-term horizon, NEPI Rockcastle stock may be entering a new bullish phase that merits serious attention from investors looking to capitalise on the next upcycle in European real estate. The foundation is in place for robust returns, and the timing appears distinctly favourable for those considering a strategic position.

As regional markets gather momentum and NEPI Rockcastle continues to deliver on its operational commitments, the stock offers a compelling window into the upside potential of CEE retail property—a window that, by all analytical indications, is now wide open for consideration.

How to buy NEPI Rockcastle stock in ZA?

Buying NEPI Rockcastle shares online is straightforward and secure when you use a regulated broker based in South Africa. Investors can choose between two main methods: buying actual shares (known as spot or cash buying), or trading Contracts for Difference (CFDs), which track the price of NEPI Rockcastle without direct ownership. Both methods offer flexibility and are fully accessible online. Each approach suits different objectives, and fees may vary, so it's wise to review broker comparisons and costs—see the broker comparison lower on this page for more details.

Spot (Cash) Buying

Buying NEPI Rockcastle shares for cash means you become the direct owner of the shares, benefiting from any price increases and dividends paid by the company. This is the traditional method of investing, ideal for those with a long-term horizon. In South Africa, purchasing shares through a JSE-regulated broker typically involves a fixed commission per order, often around R80–R120, plus small statutory fees.

Example: Spot (Cash) Buying

If the NEPI Rockcastle share price is 13,612 cents (ZAR 136.12) per share, a R1,900 (about $100) investment buys approximately 14 shares (excluding fees). For a more substantial investment, if you invest $1,000 (about R19,000), you could buy roughly 139 shares, factoring in a brokerage fee of around R100 ($5).

✔️ Gain scenario: If the share price rises by 10%, your holding would be worth about $1,100.

Result: That’s a $100 gross gain, equating to +10% on your original investment (excluding transaction fees and taxes).

Trading via CFD

CFD trading on NEPI Rockcastle shares means you are speculating on the share price without owning the underlying asset. CFDs allow you to profit from both rising and falling markets and to use leverage—meaning you can gain larger exposure with less capital. CFD brokers typically charge a spread (the difference between buying and selling price) and overnight financing fees if you hold positions beyond a day.

Example: CFD Trading

Suppose you open a CFD position with a stake of $1,000 and use 5x leverage. This means your market exposure is $5,000—so you are amplifying both potential gains and losses.

✔️ Gain scenario: If NEPI Rockcastle shares rise by 8%, your position earns 8% × 5 = 40%.

Result: That’s a $400 gain on a $1,000 deposit (excluding spreads and overnight fees).

Final Advice

Before investing, it’s essential to compare brokers’ fees, safety standards, platform features, and product offerings to ensure they suit your strategy—costs can significantly impact your returns. The best method depends on your investment goals: spot buying suits those seeking ownership and dividends, while CFDs are suited to short-term traders comfortable with risk and leverage. For a detailed breakdown of South African broker options, consult the comparison table lower down this page and choose the platform most aligned to your needs.

Our 7 tips for buying NEPI Rockcastle stock

The latest news about NEPI Rockcastle

NEPI Rockcastle reported a 12.6% year-on-year increase in Q1 2025 net operating income, surpassing expectations. This strong operational outperformance is a key positive for JSE investors, as the company’s assets continue to deliver robust rent collections and footfall recovery in their Central and Eastern European retail portfolio. The net operating income (NOI) reached €152 million in the first quarter, highlighting the effectiveness of the management team and resilient consumer demand across markets, an important reassurance for South African shareholders exposed through the JSE listing.

A forward dividend yield of 7.96% positions NEPI Rockcastle attractively for South African yield-focused investors. The company is maintaining a semi-annual dividend schedule, with the next expected ex-date marked for 18 September 2025 and a projected payout of €0.27 per share. This attractive yield is especially noteworthy in the context of a South African investment landscape keen on hard-currency income streams and diversified sector exposure, as NEPI Rockcastle's cash distributions are often viewed as a stable and inflation-hedging option within global real estate.

Recent acquisitions in Poland and a €650 million development pipeline signal ongoing portfolio growth and strategic expansion. Over the past week, official disclosures confirm continued execution of two major acquisitions in Poland, further consolidating NEPI Rockcastle’s status as Central and Eastern Europe’s largest mall operator. Coupled with an active pipeline of expansions and renovations, this underpins both future rental growth visibility and the broader corporate commitment to strengthening market leadership in a region with increasing retail consumption.

The analyst price target for the stock on Euronext Amsterdam, at €7.12/share (+4.4% upside), reflects moderate optimism despite neutral technical signals. While technical indicators on the JSE currently trend neutral-to-bearish, with a 14-day RSI at 44 and a MACD signaling sales pressure, the prevailing analyst consensus still sees room for appreciation from current levels near €6.82. The longer-term upside forecast (up to €8.87 based on some models) and stable fundamentals are likely to attract attention among South African analysts monitoring property stocks with cross-border exposure and low beta (5-year beta: 0.79).

NEPI Rockcastle’s primary listing on the JSE and trading in ZAR ensure continued relevance for South African market participants under local regulation. As an offshore real estate vehicle listed locally, NEPI Rockcastle provides South Africans with an effective gateway to stable euro-denominated income and asset diversification, without leaving the protection of South African institutional and tax frameworks. Its large market capitalization, stable governance, and consistent corporate communication further appeal to both institutional and retail investors in the region, particularly given the prevailing currency volatility and appetite for defensive assets.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.