Should I buy Mr Price Group stock in 2025? Expert South Africa Analysis

What is Mr Price Group?

How much is the Mr Price Group stock?

The price of Mr Price Group stock is rising this week. The current stock price stands at 240.34 ZAR per share, marking a 2.04% increase in the past 24 hours but a slight 0.5% dip over the week. Mr Price Group holds a market capitalisation of 64.5 billion ZAR, with an average three-month daily trading volume of around 1.125 million shares. The stock shows a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.9, a dividend yield of 3.53%, and a beta of 0.65, signalling lower volatility than the broader JSE. This stability may appeal to South African investors seeking balanced exposure in the retail sector.

Our full analysis on the Mr Price Group stock

Having reviewed the latest financial results of Mr Price Group Limited, alongside a comprehensive assessment of its share price trajectory over the previous three years, our proprietary analysis brings together financial metrics, technical trends, evolving market dynamics, and peer group comparisons for a multi-faceted outlook. This integrated approach draws upon robust data and algorithmic insight, revealing signals that suggest a strategic inflection point could be forming. So, why might Mr Price Group stock once again become a compelling entry into South Africa’s high-growth apparel and specialty retail sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

In the past year, Mr Price Group (JSE:MRP) has delivered a remarkable share price appreciation of between +28.57% and +34.36%, firmly outpacing many peers on the JSE. Despite a moderate 16.5% pullback over the last six months—a reflection of sector-wide softness and macro volatility—the stock has demonstrated resiliency, bouncing by over 2% intraday on May 30th to close at ZAR 240.34 per share. Average daily trading volume holds strong at 1.125 million shares, evidencing sustained institutional and retail confidence.

The company’s latest reporting cycle underlines its strength. In November 2024, Mr Price delivered interim top-line growth of 5.2% (ZAR 17.6bn revenue), with annual growth at an outstanding 15.5% (to ZAR 37.9bn) for FY2024, and net income at ZAR 3.37bn. The company’s 2024 dividend per share surged 17.8%, fortifying total return credentials. Amid broader uncertainty—characterized by fluctuating consumer sentiment and seasonal demand factors—Mr Price’s nimbleness and South Africa’s still-favourable demographic drivers underpin a constructive setup for the sector.

• Upward revision of the consensus price target to ZAR 32,028 (+30% upside from current levels).
• Market share gains (up 60bps in key categories).
• Expansion of financial services, now nearing ZAR 1bn revenue run rate.
• Robust dividend growth and capital allocation confidence.

With South Africa’s economic landscape stabilizing, a low inflation backdrop, and growing momentum in consumer discretionary spending, Mr Price is superbly positioned as a defensive growth play within the region’s specialty retail.

Technical Analysis

Technical signals on Mr Price Group illustrate a maturing base and early signs of a bullish inflection:

• Relative Strength Index (RSI - 14 days): at 53, the stock is in neutral territory, avoiding the risk of overextension yet poised to participate in any renewed market uptrend.
• MACD: While flashing a short-term sell signal, recent chart action—a Japanese "Morning Star" pattern—suggests the potential for a reversal higher, especially as ZAR 23,679 (Ichimoku base line) has held as robust support.
• Moving Averages: The 50-day moving average (ZAR 23,047) gives an actionable buy signal, underpinned by support at current levels. Although some shorter and longer-term averages (20, 100, 200-day) imply near-term caution, these signals may highlight a late-stage consolidation phase, often observed prior to trend continuation.
• Key Levels:
• Support: ZAR 23,679 (critical floor; dip-buying opportunity).
• Resistance: ZAR 25,688 (initial upside target); a move through this could trigger technical momentum.
• Pattern Recognition: Formation of a Morning Star and Elliott Wave structures (per FNB) reinforce the possibility for a bullish rerating into mid-2025.

The technical constellation invites investors and traders to monitor for a break above resistance, flagging the likelihood of a new medium-term upcycle.

Fundamental Analysis

Mr Price Group’s fundamentals provide the bedrock for sustained performance and upside re-rating:

• Revenue Growth: FY2024 revenue accelerated at +15.5% year-on-year, and H1 2025 maintained positive traction (+5.2%), outpacing the bulk of South African retail competitors.
• Profitability: Net profit margin remains among the highest in domestic retail. Earnings per share (EPS) improved meaningfully to ZAR 4.82 in H1 2025, outstripping last year.
• Valuation: Price/Earnings ratio stands attractively at 17.9–18.4x, a justified premium for a top-quartile growth profile, yet not overextended by global standards. The consensus target foresees a further 30% rerating, implying a PEG ratio consistent with undervalued growth equities.
• Dividend Yield: A robust 3.5% dividend yield, enhanced by double-digit dividend growth rates (+11.2% for 2025E, +17.5% for 2026E), offers a rare blend of income and growth exposure.
• Balance Sheet: The company sustains a fortress balance sheet with minimal leverage, ensuring strategic flexibility.
• Strategic Expansion: Mr Price now operates over 2,900 stores regionally, with a differentiated value-fashion position exerting leadership in accessible, on-trend apparel—a space where few direct rivals match its scale or operational efficiency.
• Innovation and Market Share: Industry leadership in ‘fast fashion with value’ is reinforced by continuous assortment innovation, technology-enabled supply chain agility, and digital expansion in both product offering and financial services.

The alignment of robust fundamentals, disciplined execution, and scalable growth engines underpins an above-sector investment case.

Volume and Liquidity

Liquidity is a persistent strength for Mr Price Group—average daily volumes of over 1.12 million shares consistently attract institutional flows and facilitate efficient price discovery. With 260.8 million shares in issue, the group’s free float remains sufficiently wide for price dynamism, supporting a responsive and competitive bid-ask environment. Such liquidity underpins not only ease of entry/exit for sophisticated investors, but also helps compress spreads, which is vital for dynamic valuation adjustments as new catalysts emerge.

Sustained trading activity underscores a high degree of market engagement, increasing the probability of sharp moves as positive catalysts materialise.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

A robust pipeline of positive drivers supports a bullish stance into the medium and long term:

• Growth: Consensus projects ~13% compound annual profit growth to 2027, with dividend increases outpacing inflation and sector benchmarks.
• Market Share: Management’s market share accretion—gaining ~60bps in the last period—demonstrates strength even in competitive or uncertain periods.
• Financial Services Growth: Expansion of the group’s financial services arm, on track to surpass ZAR 1bn in revenues, diversifies the business model and unlocks cross-sell potential.
• Margin Expansion: An increasing proportion of sales at full price (vs. markdown) directly boosts gross profit margin, highlighting the strength of the offer and consumer love for the brand.
• Operational Strength: Efficient stock management, low debt, and tech-enabled differentiation preserve resilience against sectoral or macro shocks.
• ESG Initiatives: With strong governance, retail innovation, and evolving sustainability disclosures, Mr Price has begun to attract new classes of institutional responsible capital, fuelling rerating potential.
• Sector Backdrop: Stable South African inflation and supportive monetary policy set the stage for continued retail and discretionary demand, particularly as the country recovers from power grid disruptions and global shocks.

Overlaying these developments is an optimistic sell-side consensus, with technical analysis (per FNB) echoing a recommended ‘buy’ positioning and medium-term price targets (ZAR 287–298) now standing 17–24% above current market.

Investment Strategies

• Short-Term (1–3 Months):
• Technical support at ZAR 23,679 presents an attractive risk/reward for tactical buyers seeking a rebound or mean reversion, especially if bolstered by favorable seasonality or positive early Q3 updates.
• Breakout traders may look for confirmation above ZAR 25,688 as a signal for acceleration to new local highs.
• Medium-Term (3–9 Months):
• With the Elliott Wave uptrend emerging, medium-term investors could anchor positions in anticipation of the mid-2025 results cycle and further dividend declarations.
• The combination of strong interim numbers and upward earnings momentum presents the opportunity to participate in the next leg up, should macro and sector trends cooperate.
• Long-Term (1+ Years):
• For patient capital, Mr Price offers exposure to secular growth themes: urbanisation, rising disposable incomes, and the evolution of the African consumer market.
• Structural strengths—such as an unrivalled retail network in value fashion—justify a core holding, supported by recurring free cash flow and dividend growth, enhancing compounding over multiple years.

Across all time frames, the technical low of ~ZAR 23,700 and the approach of several material catalysts—including financial services development and further digital platform leverage—warrant careful monitoring and may represent ideal points of entry.

Is it the Right Time to Buy Mr Price Group?

Synthesizing the technical, fundamental, and macro context, Mr Price Group stands out with a deft combination of operational momentum, resilient dividend growth, disciplined cost control, and scalable expansion. Its balance sheet strength and sector leadership argue for renewed institutional interest at a time when share price consolidation has set the stage for potential upside. With medium-term technical targets 17–30% above current levels, an undemanding valuation, and a track record of exceeding expectations, the fundamentals justify serious consideration by investors seeking exposure to South Africa’s transformation in value retail.

Overall, the current technical structure, robust underlying performance, and substantial medium-term catalysts suggest that Mr Price Group may indeed be entering a new bullish phase—presenting an excellent opportunity for those looking to add a best-in-class retail growth stock to their portfolio.

How to buy Mr Price Group stock in ZA?

Buying Mr Price Group stock online is simpler and more secure than ever when using a regulated South African broker. Investors can choose between two main methods: direct share ownership (spot buying) or contracts for difference (CFDs), each with its own advantages and risks. With robust investor protections in place, you can confidently start investing from home with just a few clicks. Further down this page, you’ll find a detailed comparison of leading brokers to help you get started.

Buying Mr Price Group Shares for Cash

When you buy Mr Price Group shares for cash, you become a shareholder—owning real units of stock listed on the JSE (Johannesburg Stock Exchange). This is the most straightforward way to invest: you pay the share price plus a brokerage commission, typically a fixed fee per order (e.g., around R60–R170, depending on the broker).

Example

If the Mr Price Group share price is ZAR 240.34 per share, and you invest $1,000 (approx. ZAR 18,800), you can buy roughly 78 shares (after accounting for a typical brokerage fee of about R100, or $5).

✔️ Gain scenario: If the share price rises by 10%, your investment’s new value is roughly $1,100—a $100 gross gain, or +10% on your original stake.

Trading Mr Price Group Shares via CFDs

CFDs (Contracts for Difference) allow you to trade Mr Price Group shares without owning the underlying asset. Instead, you speculate on price movement—up or down—often using leverage. CFD brokers charge a spread (the difference between buy and sell price), and you’ll pay overnight financing fees if you hold positions beyond a day.

Example

With a $1,000 stake and 5x leverage, you gain exposure to ZAR 94,000 (about $5,000) worth of Mr Price Group shares.

✔️ Gain scenario: If the stock price rises by 8%, your position increases by 8% × 5 = 40%. You’d make a $400 gain on your initial $1,000 (excluding spreads and possible overnight fees).

Final Advice

Before you buy, always compare brokerage fees, platform features, and conditions, as these can significantly impact your returns. Whether you choose to own shares outright (spot buying) or trade via CFDs depends on your investment goals, risk appetite, and experience. For a side-by-side brokerage comparison tailored to South African investors, scroll down for our comprehensive tool.

Our 7 tips for buying Mr Price Group stock

The latest news about Mr Price Group

Mr Price Group delivers robust interim financial results, exceeding market expectations for revenue and earnings growth. For the 26 weeks ended 28 September 2024, the company reported a 5.2% increase in revenue to 17.6 billion ZAR and a higher earnings per share of 4.82 ZAR, outperforming 2023’s 4.49 ZAR. These figures reflect not only solid top-line expansion but also successful execution in growing market share by 60 basis points, indicating effective competitiveness within the South African retail landscape.

Analyst sentiment remains optimistic as consensus price target is raised and technical buy signals emerge. Prominent research sources have revised their consensus one-year price target upward to 287–298 ZAR per share, forecasting a potential upside between 10% and 17% from current levels. Technical analysis from FNB corroborates this positive outlook, with a confirmed “buy” recommendation and recent formation of a bullish Morning Star reversal pattern suggesting improved short- to medium-term momentum for the stock on the JSE.

Continued strong dividend outlook and capital returns underpin the stock’s attractiveness for South African investors. Mr Price’s final declared dividend grew impressively by 17.8% year-on-year to 5.27 ZAR per share, contributing to a current dividend yield of 3.53%. With projected annual dividend growth of more than 11% for the coming year and eligibility for local tax-free accounts, the stock offers an appealing profile for income-focused investors within South Africa’s regulatory and fiscal context.

The company maintains strategic leadership in affordable fashion and homeware through expansion and innovative positioning. Mr Price operates over 2,900 stores across southern Africa, strengthening its status as the region’s leading value-focused retailer. Its differentiated pricing and fashion offering have safeguarded market share, while expansion of financial services is on track to exceed 1 billion ZAR in annual revenue, providing a new engine for profit diversification and longer-term growth potential.

Low leverage, resilient operating margins, and strong market share gains reinforce Mr Price Group’s stability in the current market environment. A structurally sound balance sheet with modest debt, sustained improvement in gross margins (aided by higher full-price sales), and demonstrated ability to attract cost-conscious local consumers affirm Mr Price’s resilience even amid seasonal or macroeconomic headwinds. This positions the company as a robust, defensive play within South Africa’s retail sector, supporting continued share performance and investor confidence.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.