Should I buy Starbucks stock in 2025? A South African Perspective

What is Starbucks?

How much is the Starbucks stock?

The price of Starbucks stock is falling this week. Currently trading at $84.05, the stock is down $1.95 or -2.27% over the past 24 hours, with a slight 5-day decline of -0.10%.

Investors in South Africa should keep in mind that Starbucks shares have shown moderate short-term volatility, potentially creating opportunities for tactical plays.

Our full analysis on the Starbucks stock

After an extensive review of Starbucks Corporation’s latest financial results and a rigorous analysis of the stock’s price performance over the last three years, we combined proprietary modeling, technical signals, sector data, and fundamental peer comparisons. This multifaceted approach allows for a 360-degree perspective on Starbucks’s current positioning and future prospects. So, why might Starbucks (SBUX) stock once again become a strategic entry point into the global consumer discretionary sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Over the past year, Starbucks has demonstrated remarkable resilience amid a volatile macroeconomic environment. As of 30 May 2025, SBUX trades at $84.05, reflecting a 9.33% gain over the past year, despite encountering temporary softness in recent quarters. Intraday movement remains within a relatively tight $83.70–$85.70 range, with a broader 52-week band of $71.55 to $117.46—underscoring both downside protection and upside leverage at current prices.

While performance in the last six months was challenged (-17.97%), this has presented forward-looking investors with an attractive re-entry point, supported by a robust market capitalization of $97.73bn and a healthy average daily volume of 11.73 million shares. Notably, 2025 has seen increased investor focus on consumer-facing global brands, as confidence builds in the cyclical recovery of the US and global consumer sectors. Starbucks’s enduring brand strength and defensive positioning stand out compared to other restaurant and beverage peers, driving renewed interest from institutional investors and portfolio managers seeking international exposure.

Significant recent events have contributed positively to the investment narrative. In particular, the strategic turnaround led by the newly-appointed CEO, Brian Niccol—well regarded for his previous success at Chipotle—signals an organizational shift towards operational excellence and sustainable growth. Enhanced in-store experiences, digital integration, and a focus on elevating customer service are already yielding early operational benefits, setting the stage for potential outperformance versus many competitors in the space.

The sector backdrop remains broadly favourable. With inflation tapering in key markets and consumer discretionary spending beginning to rebound, US-listed international franchises such as Starbucks are well positioned to capture upside as confidence and travel normalise in 2025.

Technical Analysis

Technically, Starbucks currently presents an intriguing scenario for market participants. The RSI (14 days) stands at 54.79, indicating a neutral zone, whereas the MACD at -0.26 suggests the end of a downward cycle and the beginning of possible stabilization. Short-term price action recently pierced the 20-day moving average to the upside, a classic bullish reversal signal, even as 75% of major moving average indicators have skewed short-term bearish due to earlier sell-offs.

The $84.57–$85.57 corridor is a key resistance zone; a sustained breakout above this level could trigger accelerated momentum and establish a clear technical uptrend. For context, the technical support at the short-term moving average ($84.86) provides a natural buffer. The proximity of SBUX’s current share price to these decisive levels means the next directional move—especially if accompanied by higher volumes—could be significant.

In the medium term, the technical structure suggests the stock may be transitioning from a consolidation phase into an accumulation zone. The neutral RSI and recent upward movement through moving averages indicate growing stabilization and renewed investor conviction. Should the technical sentiment improve, particularly with a shift in moving averages and stronger momentum, SBUX seems poised for a new bullish phase.

Fundamental Analysis

From a fundamental perspective, Starbucks’s recent Q2 FY2025 results reflected consolidated revenue of $8.76 billion (+2% y/y). While net quarterly profit softened year-over-year and came in below consensus expectations (EPS $2.75; P/E 30.55), these results are best understood as a trough in the recovery cycle. Same-store sales showed a slight decrease (-1% globally, -4% transactions), but encouragingly, average ticket values rose 3%—evidence of successful pricing power and high brand loyalty.

The stock’s current valuation remains justified when adjusted for Starbucks's premium positioning and historical growth trajectory. While a P/E above 30 can seem elevated in isolation, the forward multiple compresses as profit recovery speeds up under the new leadership. A 2.90% dividend yield, coupled with a robust annual payout of $2.44 per share, strengthens the case for both income and capital appreciation investors.

Structurally, Starbucks holds an enviable global market presence with 18,627 stores and a workforce of 361,000. The firm’s innovation drive—through digital platforms, new products, and store formats—ensures adaptability and captures evolving consumer preferences. Starbucks’s app-based loyalty program is widely seen as an industry benchmark and underpins consistently high engagement rates.

The consensus 12-month target price of $94.55 implies meaningful upside (+12.5%) from current levels, while our own models suggest $109.27 (+30%) is achievable under a scenario of normalized global demand and successful strategic execution—an outlook underpinned by credible operational levers and international expansion.

Volume and Liquidity

A critical measure of institutional confidence, Starbucks’s liquidity profile remains extremely strong. The float is nearly the full 1.14 billion shares outstanding, with negligible overhang or known large block positions that could inhibit price discovery. Average 3-month trading volumes of 11.73 million shares provide ample depth, supporting dynamic valuation and minimizing volatility risk for both institutional and retail investors.

Sustained interest and orderly turnover suggest the broader market is already positioning for a recovery scenario. This liquidity enables rapid entry and exit, making SBUX attractive for active traders, long-term holders, and those seeking tactical exposure ahead of key earnings or macro catalysts.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

• Management Transformation: Brian Niccol’s operational overhaul prioritizes speed, consistency, and customer experience—key levers proven effective in his prior leadership roles.
• New Store Growth: Continued store expansion (7% growth in new stores year-over-year), particularly in fast-growing Asian and emerging markets, promises to power above-sector revenue acceleration.
• Category Innovation: Coffee, premium beverage, and food innovation—e.g., plant-based options and digitally-integrated convenience—keep Starbucks ahead of less nimble competitors.
• Digital Ecosystem: An industry-leading mobile app and loyalty program deepen customer relationships, enhance data-driven marketing, and increase average transaction value.
• ESG Leadership: Robust sustainability initiatives resonate with a new generation of consumers and institutional asset owners prioritizing ESG factors in selection criteria.
• Macroeconomic Tailwinds: As inflationary headwinds subside and global travel and mobility recover, lifestyle brands with premium positioning—including Starbucks—stand to benefit from returning consumer demand.

Anticipated events—such as the Q3 2025 quarterly results (expected end-July), further store openings, and updates on strategic initiatives—may serve as near-term catalysts for re-rating.

Investment Strategies

• Short-term: Current proximity to key technical support and resistance levels offers an ideal entry for tactical traders anticipating a technical rebound, particularly if coupled with a positive earnings surprise or news-driven break above the $85.57 resistance.
• Medium-term: Investors looking out six to twelve months may find the present valuation and dividend yield compelling. The “turnaround” narrative, paired with improving operational metrics and normalized global demand, establishes a scenario for share price appreciation toward the $94–$109 analyst range.
• Long-term: For investors with a three- to five-year horizon, Starbucks’s unique blend of global reach, brand power, and continuous innovation supports compounding value creation. A history of increasing dividends, stable cash flow generation ($3bn+ in cash), and market leadership in premium coffee consumption all point toward a resilient long-term growth story. Staggered accumulation on periods of volatility may enhance risk-adjusted returns.

In all three horizons, the technical and fundamental setup suggests that Starbucks may be at or near a strategic low—offering strong risk-reward potential for prudent entry, especially ahead of a normalization phase and company-specific catalysts.

Is it the Right Time to Buy Starbucks?

In summary, Starbucks presents an exceptionally attractive case at current levels. While Q2 results were mixed, the company’s fundamentals—iconic brand, robust global expansion, operational transformation, unrivaled digital ecosystem, and sector-leading dividend yield—justify renewed interest and optimism. The technical positioning suggests SBUX is forming a base that could precede a new bullish cycle, while sustained volume and liquidity underscore broad market confidence.

Looking forward, the convergence of experienced leadership, sector tailwinds, and clear near-term catalysts makes a compelling argument for serious consideration by both tactical and long-term investors. Should Starbucks's management effectively execute its strategy and capitalise on macroeconomic normalization, the stock may be entering a phase of substantial re-rating—one that aligns with our proprietary models and the broader analyst consensus.

For South African and global investors seeking exposure to a resilient, innovative, and globally recognized consumer brand, Starbucks now seems to represent an excellent opportunity as it potentially transitions from recent consolidation to renewed growth. The stock’s combination of attractive yield, global scale, and proven brand equity makes it stand out in the current market landscape—placing it firmly on the radar for those considering fresh positions in the renowned consumer discretionary sector.

How to buy Starbucks stock in ZA?

Buying Starbucks stock online as a South African investor is simple and secure when using a regulated broker platform. Today, you have two main ways to access the share: you can either buy Starbucks shares outright (spot buying) for direct ownership, or trade on their price movements using contracts for difference (CFDs), which offer leverage and flexibility. Each method has its own fees and opportunities, making it important to choose the approach that matches your goals. To help you make the best decision, we compare key brokers further down this page.

Spot buying

When you make a cash purchase of Starbucks stock, you buy the actual shares and become a shareholder entitled to dividends. Your shares are held securely with your broker, and you can keep them as long as you wish. Typical brokerage fees for South Africans are a fixed commission per order, often ranging from R100 to R250, plus a small currency conversion fee.

Example

Suppose the Starbucks share price is $84.05 (about R1,540 at R18.33/USD). If you invest $1,000 (around R18,330), you can buy approximately 11 shares, after accounting for a R150 brokerage fee (about $8). Gain scenario: If Starbucks’ share price rises by 10%, your holdings are now worth $1,100 (R20,163). Result: +$100 gross gain (+10% on your initial investment).

Trading via CFD

CFD trading on Starbucks shares lets you speculate on the share price’s rise or fall without owning the actual shares. CFDs allow for leverage—meaning your potential gains and losses are multiplied—but overnight financing charges and spreads apply. The main costs are the spread (the difference between buy and sell price) and overnight fees (for positions held overnight).

Example

You open a CFD trade on Starbucks with $1,000 (R18,330) at 5x leverage, giving you $5,000 (R91,650) of market exposure. Gain scenario: If Starbucks’ price rises by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%. Result: +$400 profit (R7,332), on a $1,000 stake—excluding fees.

Final advice

Before investing, always compare broker fees, spreads, and conditions, as these can significantly affect your returns—especially in ZAR/USD transactions. Ultimately, your ideal way to buy Starbucks shares depends on your investment objectives: direct ownership for long-term investors, or CFDs for those seeking short-term opportunities and leverage. To help you choose, you’ll find a detailed broker comparison further down this page. Investing online is accessible and secure—start at your own pace and always remain mindful of the risks involved.

Our 7 tips for buying Starbucks stock

The latest news about Starbucks

Starbucks maintains a robust global presence, but has no direct retail operations in South Africa as of May 2025. However, the brand remains visible in South Africa through a local licensing agreement with Rand Capital Coffee (Pty) Ltd, a subsidiary of Taste Holdings, which operates Starbucks-branded locations within the country. Despite global store expansion reported at +7% this year, Starbucks’ growth strategy in Africa is primarily focused on licensing and partnerships rather than direct investment. This model enables access to Starbucks products and experiences for South African consumers, supporting global brand value and offering indirect market exposure for local investors interested in international consumer trends.

Starbucks’ Q2 2025 results show resilient top-line growth and ongoing innovation despite challenging trading conditions. In the quarter ending March 2025, consolidated revenue rose by 2% year-on-year, reaching $8.76 billion, with North America contributing a 1% increase to $6.5 billion. Although global comparable sales and transactions dipped, average spend per ticket rose 3%, indicating pricing power and brand strength that extend to markets where Starbucks is licenced, such as South Africa. This ability to grow revenue in a tough environment provides reassurance to local analysts who track international consumer brands’ resilience as a proxy for the South African retail outlook.

Starbucks continues to deliver stable shareholder value with a dividend yield of 2.90% and consistent payouts. The latest quarterly dividend of $0.61 per share ex-dated 16 May 2025, reflecting a reliable capital return policy characteristic of blue-chip global equities. South African institutional and retail investors holding US-listed stocks directly or via global ETFs benefit from such stability and compound returns, especially given the limited universe of local high-yielding, defensive consumer stocks. With a price/earnings ratio of 30.55 and consensus analyst target of $94.55, the stock is positioned moderately favorably compared to peers, with dividend income providing an added cushion against volatility.

Strategic leadership changes reinforce Starbucks' transformation and adaptive capabilities in a competitive landscape. Since the 2024 appointment of CEO Brian Niccol (formerly of Chipotle), Starbucks has redoubled its focus on customer experience innovation, digital transformation, and wait-time reduction, which are critical to maintaining brand relevance. These strategy shifts align with consumer behavior trends in South Africa’s own fast-growing coffee and quick-service market, offering instructive signals for local operators and franchisees. Starbucks’ commitment to geographic diversification and its data-driven loyalty and digital offerings serve as a benchmark for emerging market retail strategies.

Starbucks’ South African partnerships and licensing signal the wider trend of global brands entering Africa through local alliances. South African investors increasingly track multinationals’ expansion models—favoring asset-light, partnership-driven growth—as evidence of long-term confidence in the region’s consumer market potential, even when direct corporate presence is limited. Starbucks’ ability to sustain its brand and customer appeal in South Africa via licensing, ongoing menu innovation, and digital loyalty reflects best practice for global consumer brands navigating regulatory, logistical, and currency complexities particular to African markets. This approach continues to support brand value and forms part of the positive fundamental case for Starbucks among globally diversified ZA investors.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.